Political polls: FdI above 30% and the Democratic Party exceeds the 5Stelle

The latest Supermedia records “officially” the overtaking of the Democratic Party on the M5S, in the wake of the primary effect that traditionally provides a certain impetus to the Democrats. This does not particularly disturb the overall balance, indeed FdI strengthens slightly (30.4%) while the fight for fifth place between Third Pole and Forza Italia ignites.

YouTrend’s analysis

As expected – according to the YouTrend analysis – the primaries for the national secretariat of the Democratic Party, which culminated last Sunday in the victory of Elly Schlein, have decidedly “stirred the waters”, lately a bit stagnant, of party consensus. As has often happened in the past, in fact, thanks to the vitality that accompanies the typical mobilization of these occasions, the Democratic Party has definitely gained support in recent weeks. In our Supermedia, the Pd records a leap of almost one and a half points in the last 14 days alone, such as to allow it to (re) surpass the 5 Star Movement in second place among the lists. The pentastellati, on the other hand, are significantly losing ground (0.8 percent) and are thus the main “victims” of this newfound vitality of the Democrats.

The consents of the Third Pole

Net of this “shock”, the general balance did not undergo particular variations, with Fratelli d’Italia even slightly strengthening (+0.2%) rising to 30.4%. It will also be interesting to follow the dynamics of the consents of the Third Pole in the coming weeks: to date, the federation between Azione and Italia Viva is slightly down, around 7%, and now finds itself threatened by Forza Italia. However, according to many, Schlein’s victory could open up new growth spaces for the creation of Matthew Renzi And Charles Calenda. On the occasion of similar events, one must first of all ask oneself whether we are dealing with effective growth or with a perception “polluted” by contingent, non-structural suggestions. A first clue comes from the analysis of data from individual polling institutes (and there are many) that have experimented with measuring party consensus in recent weeks.

The ascent after the primaries

The “sensational” poll of Antonio Noto For Door to door, for example, estimates a net +3% for the Democratic Party between before and after the primaries. But, even without going that far, other pollsters have also recorded growth in the last month for the Democrats: +2.2% for Swg, +1.7% for Tecnè, about one point for Emg; the growth recorded by Euromedia, Ipsos and Ixè was slightly lower; but what is relevant, in the final analysis, is the unanimity with which the various institutes have recorded growth. Secondly, the analysis of historical precedents tells us that the Democratic Party has always gained support after the primaries, sometimes seeing the data from polls more than confirmed on the occasion of subsequent national elections (as happened at the 2019 Europeans, a few months after the victory Of Nicola Zingaretti in the primary).

However, the path for the relaunch of the Democratic Party and the center-left (if we can really speak of a relaunch) promises to be only at the beginning. As we said, essentially the consensus of the Italians has not changed much, and the center-right clearly remains the most popular coalition with about 47% of the consensus, clearly detaching all the oppositions. Of course, all this could change: the oppositions have already begun to show signs of recovery, at least as regards attacks on the government on the most slippery issues, from the massacre of migrants to the modification of the Superbonus.

However, it is still too early to say whether the tide has changed, and whether we will be able to see a real trend reversal in the coming months. An element that should not be underestimated, in order to estimate the probabilities that this change could take place, is the surprise effect created by Schlein’s victory in the primaries. Even if we tend to forget it, in fact, it is rather rare that in an electoral competition (especially a national one) the predictions are overturned.

Two women in comparison

Of course, polls are never perfect, and they should never be used as a forecasting tool. However, it is a fact that the majority of the surveys carried out in recent months, i.e. since the challenge for the succession to Enrico Lettathey saw an advantage (sometimes even clear) Stefano Bonaccini. Not only that: according to a Euromedia poll, carried out a few days after the vote, it was the voters themselves (including those of the Democratic Party) who predicted the victory of the governor of Emilia-Romagna. This is not surprising, since in the past it had never happened that the primaries overturned the result of the vote of the members in the clubs: sometimes (as in 2013 and 2019) it had happened that the winner imposed himself a second time in the gazebos with a much higher gap on the second; but the candidate with the most membership votes had never before been defeated in the open primary. Most likely, it was Schlein’s greater ability to mobilize voters looking for a drastic break with the past, as well as – probably – the desire to oppose a center-right led by a female prime minister (the first of the story) another female leader. The very first polls carried out after the primaries seem to show that the new secretary of the Democratic Party is highly appreciated not only by the voters of her party, but also by those of other parties, from the left to the 5 Star Movement.