Pensions: in 5 years 2.7 million employed people will leave their jobs

Between 2023 and 2027, the Italian labor market will require 3.8 million workers: of which 2.7 million (equal to 71.7% of the total) to replace people destined to retire and more than one million new entries (28.3% of the total) linked to the economic growth expected in this five-year period. This was revealed by the Cgia of Mestre, based on data from the Excelsior information system of Unioncamere and Anpal, which reports that under current legislation in the next 5 years almost 12% of Italians will leave their jobs permanently for having reached the age limit. Of the 2.7 million total employees who will slip into retirement over the next few years, half, just under 1.4 million, will be private employees and over 670,000 each in the public sector and the world of self-employment. However, if one calculates the incidence of replacement demand on the total employment requirement in each of the three professional positions analyzed (private employees, public employees and independent workers), the highest value, equal to 91.6% of the total, will concern the public use.

On the other hand, if we analyze the production/economic chains most affected by the exodus of employed people towards retirement, in absolute terms we see health (331,500 employees), real estate activities, rental/leasing, surveillance/investigation, other public and private services (cleaning, gardening and public administration which does not include health, social assistance and education) with 419,800 units and, in particular, trade and tourism (484,500). If, also in this case, we measure the incidence of replacement demand on the need for employment, the sectors that will find themselves most in “difficulty” within the next 5 years will be fashion (91.9%), agri-food (93.4 %) and, in particular, wood-furniture (93.5%). The main Made in Italy sectors run the risk of no longer being able to count on an important share of quality and highly experienced workers. At the regional level, in the next five years the percentage incidence of the replacement demand on the total employment requirement will involve, in particular, Veneto (73.4%), Molise (78.5%), Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta (82 %), Abruzzo (82.5%) and Liguria (85.5%). The region of Italy most affected by this phenomenon will be Basilicata (88.3%)