More jobs and more growth, the sustainable choice of «green» investments: the priorities of Italia-Corriere.it

The latest IPCC report (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) passed almost unnoticed in Italy. And yet, it contains some, to put it mildly, relevant news. The most important is that the warming of the Earth – calculated against the estimate of the temperature in the pre-industrial era – not only has not decreased, and it took little to understand it, but has undergone a strong acceleration. We are already around 1.21 degrees. Also to blame for the pandemic, the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, the desire for economic recovery which sees, for example, coal, the most polluting, ever so used, together with oil and gas. From green Germany to red China. In reality, both are black, like many other countries, including ours, due to the extensive use of fossil fuels which unfortunately we still cannot do without in the energy and ecological transition (which therefore needs to be accelerated, not slowed down as some claim). And all this despite the strong increase in investments in renewables: especially solar (even in less sunny countries than ours) and wind power.

There is also nuclear power which, we recall, does not emit CO2. The fact is that 16 of the 17 hottest years have been recorded since 2001 and that maximum limit for the global temperature increase (1.5 degrees) desirable for 2050 (compared to the pre-industrial period, 1850-1900) set as a target with the Paris Agreements of 2015, will probably already be passed in August 2034. Sixteen years earlier! 2034, on the time scale of climate-altering phenomena, tomorrow morning. The goal seems so unattainable. the fear of Carlo Carraro, rector emeritus of Ca’ Foscari, vice president of the Scientific steering committee of the IPCC.

There are those who wonder: why damn ourselves so much if we are now almost certain that we have failed? Shouldn’t we focus the available economic resources on adaptation interventions? After all, Europe contributes only 7 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions (albeit with a per capita carbon footprint twenty times that of India), so why do we have to do so much? Heeding these rumors would be a very serious mistake, similar to what Ulysses would have committed if he had succumbed to the Sirens, leading to the death of his crew. Because a lot needs to be done. And immediately. Both on mitigation and adaptation policies.

Any delay, however small, in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (in 2019, which grew by 12% compared to 2010 and by 54% compared to 1990) makes the goal of containing the increase in temperature increasingly problematic. On the contrary, even if we were to have an increase of more than 1.5 degrees, but we implemented the right mitigation policies immediately, not excluding a subsequent trend reversal, while in the worst case scenarios – such as the one Jason Hickel talks about – in 2100 we could record an increase of 3.2 degrees, the mean value of a possible range between 2.2 and 3.5 degrees. The end of the century seems very far away. But those born today will be less than 77 years old in 2100.

Expectations

The average life expectancy in Italy is 84 years. Those who will inhabit such a dangerously hot world are no strangers. They are our children and grandchildren. In any case, it is absolutely certain that we will have to face significant costs in the coming years to adapt to the consequences, even dramatic ones, of climate change. Our inaction makes these burdens greater and socially even more unfair. As a result, they are not very manageable on a political level. Focusing on renewables not only helps to reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and make it less difficult to achieve neutrality (the more carbon dioxide I produce, the more I absorb), but it would allow us to better manage the negative impacts on the environment (droughts, floods , biodiversity losses, etc.) and on society (unemployment, exodus of climatic migrants) of the phenomena induced by the climate crisis.

Even a denialist cannot deny, faced with the growing frequency of devastating meteorological phenomena, the need for a serious mitigation plan. Anna Pirani, the only Italian expert on team who wrote the IPCC report, warns Europeans of the estimated consequences of an increase in average temperature of around 2 degrees: widespread dryness with very strong impacts on agricultural yields and on some crops; less rainfall in the Mediterranean and more in Northern Europe; sharp decrease in snow cover; less wind but more extreme events.

This year, Italian agriculture has already reported 6 billion in damages due to the drought which, presumably, will worsen in the coming months. Italy in second place, behind Germany for economic losses caused by extreme weather events between 1980 and 2019 (72 billion). Sea level has already risen 20 centimeters since the beginning of the last century. The IPCC predicts that, even in the best-case scenario, sea levels will rise by half a meter by 2100, requiring huge investments to protect our coastal cities and infrastructure! The government is committed to finalizing the National Plan for adaptation to climate change (PNACC) and developing the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNEC), in line with the objectives signed within the European Union. From these plans we will understand Italy’s future strategy in this field, which is vital for the present and the future of our society and our economy.

The literature

Many national and international studies show that the supply chains greens they can bring income and employment, such as those oriented towards energy efficiency in homes and the transformation of mobility in an ecological sense. Estimates produced in 2022 by the Carraro research team indicate that the application of the European climate law in Italy would lead to a moderate increase in the annual growth rate of GDP and higher employment of between 170,000 and 240,000 units, debunking the catastrophists of those who raise the specter of deindustrialization to postpone decisions. Obviously, we need economic and industrial policies that accompany and encourage the transformation of businesses and supply chains, such as those recently proposed by the European Union.

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) allocates 59.46 billion in Mission 2 dedicated to the ecological transition (to which 9.1 of the Complementary Fund must be added) and in Mission 3, dedicated to infrastructure for sustainable mobility, 25 40 billion (to which are added 6.06 billion from the complementary fund), to pursue objectives in line with the United Nations 2030 Agenda and the European green deal. But we need to speed up the implementation of projects. The difficulties in installing photovoltaic and wind plants are well known. The populations involved in these investments – as happens, for example, in Sardinia which consumes only coal – often oppose it. They fear that the landscape will be defaced, even with wind farms not even visible from the coast and equally opposed.

Policies to build

Energy communities, suitably incentivized and made known in their economic and social aspects, can help raise that civic sense that allows each of us to reduce our carbon footprint, just by being more careful in consumption. We also need to increase policy coherence. One natural technology in carbon dioxide capture is planting trees. The Pnrr provides that 6.6 million are planted in Italy in just 14 metropolitan cities. Already at the end of 2022, 1.7 million had to be planted. And we didn’t succeed. Against this, it seems paradoxical that the recent controversy with the European Commission on the alleged delays of the Pnrr revolves around two stadiums – that of Florence and that of Venice.

As President Mattarella reminded us during his trip to Kenya, one cannot escape from reality. The reduction of emissions in the times and in the manner indicated by the scientific community is an unavoidable obligation, which concerns everyone. We cannot indulge in the illusion of first pursuing economic development objectives and then tackling environmental problems later. We won’t have a second half.

*ASviS Scientific Director, Alliance for Sustainable Development

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