Meloni thinks about the premiership. The sovereign turnaround on reforms is ready

Institutional etiquette dictates that for now there is only one goal: “Listening”. And perhaps it will not be just for pure formalism, if Giorgia Meloni was keen to give next week’s meetings, even on a symbolic level, a precise value: “It is a confrontation between the majority and the opposition that starts without any government initiative or proposal. When it comes to institutional reforms, the executive takes a step backwards”. But in addition to the institutional grammar there is also pragmatism: the one to which FdI executives refer who discussed the issue with the premier when they admit that yes, among the many possible ones, one appears to be the obligatory path, or at least the most practicable : that of the premiership.

And it is an admission that perhaps must cost Meloni and his advisers a little if it is true that the solution that has been preached for some time in Via della Scrofa is that of presidentialism. Which is then, and not since today, the hypothesis most dear to that Francesco Saverio Marini, a professor, a highly experienced Roman constitutionalist, whom Meloni wanted with him as legal adviser. And yet there is a reason if, in the premises of a negotiation still to be woven, with rules of engagement to be defined, this preference shared in the patriotic world is progressively fading towards a more moderate variant, so to speak. First of all, there is a question of opportunity. Working towards a presidential breakthrough would in fact mean risking a diplomatic incident with the current head of state, who would end up malgré soi dragged into a debate that aims to weaken his current institutional position: to say that only a president of the republic elected by the people guarantees stability , with the current tenant of the Quirinale chosen through parliament, it would perhaps seem a slight, at least.

But there’s more. There is, in between, the logic of politics, the one that suggests to Meloni to seek a perspective of convergence with the oppositions. Having convened the Chamber, and not Palazzo Chigi, for consultations with the parliamentary groups to start discussions on constitutional reforms, having chosen the library of the President of Montecitorio, and not the office of the head of government, having placed on the agenda, one after the other, each of the components present in Parliament: everything is there to demonstrate a willingness to dialogue that disregards, at least formally, the will of the government. Who will also be present at these meetings in full force – with the premier accompanied by the undersecretaries Mantovano and Fazzolari, the ministers Ciriani and Casellati, the councilor Marini – to demonstrate that yes, so far there has been a lot of theory on the reforms, but now we are starting Really. And to do this, to lay the foundations for a reform of the institutional structure that is not, this time too, a great wish that ends in a big nothing, Meloni needs a side with the opposition. But on presidentialism he can’t find it. On the premiership, however, yes.

Minority decisions will mature in the coming days. Giuseppe Conte has convened a meeting on this matter over the weekend. Elly Schlein will confront his loyalists on Monday. But the huffs that leak from the M5s are enough to understand that “we will never stand on presidentialism” (and down to recall the warnings of Zagrebelsy & Co. against the “authoritarian twist”, the “democratura”). Hence, the position of the Nazarene becomes obligatory. With less emphasis and less clamor, the Democratic Party can only condemn “unfortunate presidential hypotheses”, as defined by Francesco Boccia, dem group leader in the Senate who, just to warm up the climate on the subject of reforms, has just filed a bill at Palazzo Madama that , in fact, aims to defuse the process of regional autonomy wanted by the Northern League Roberto Calderoli.

On the other hand, on the premiership, a side game can already be glimpsed, and it is what Meloni will try to use to show that his reformist inspiration is shared well beyond the perimeter of the majority alone, thus flushing out any preconceived positions on the part of Schlein and Conte. Because Matteo Renzi is there for the premiership, he has already told government officials. It seems that Carlo Calenda will also be there, albeit with more caution.

Of course, it will be necessary to see what connotations this constitutional amendment will take. In FdI there are three different scenarios. The first, the most “incisive”, consists in the direct election of the head of state: it should be understood whether on the model of the “mayor of Italy”, therefore with a single election for executive and legislative and a paradigm that links the life of government to that of Parliament (simul stabunt, simul cadent), or in a more attenuated form, on the model of the (unfortunate) system adopted in Israel in the mid-1990s, and then immediately aborted because it ended up causing more instability than it claimed to avert. The other hypothesis is the “Spanish” one: a trust attributed only to the head of government, who would therefore have much more extensive powers and prerogatives (not a primus inter pares, as it is today in Italy, but a president who chooses and dismisses ministers , and not only). Or finally, and it would be the weakest declination of this reform, the introduction of mere correctives, such as that of constructive distrust, which looks if anything to the German model. All of this, of course, accompanied by procedural changes which, even without abolishing it, would overcome equal bicameralism: joint votes of confidence, alternating sessions, differentiated responsibilities.

But for details, of course, it is still early. For now, in fact, Meloni wants to “listen”. And by listening, he will also understand which of the two tactics to adopt. That of convergence, which aims at a long-term path, as broad and shared as possible. Or, in the event that the opposition responds in a hostile way, or in the event that the contingencies suggest it to the premier, that of polarization. From the series: over there is the left that wants instability to make new upheavals, over here the right that governs in the name of order and discipline. With the Europeans approaching, this too could be a temptation.

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• Valerio Valentini

• Born in L’Aquila, in 1991. Grew up in Collemare, up there in the Apennines. Classical high school diploma, degree in Modern Literature at the University of Trento. Al Foglio since 2017. I wrote a book, “Gli 80 di Camporammaglia”, published by Laterza, with which I won the Campiello Opera Prima award in 2018. I like good books and good cinema. And cycling, everything, even the bad stuff.