Lombardy in chiaroscuro: industry stops but work continues

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Lombardy industry stops. If from the second half of 2020, quarter after quarter, growth had been constant, between January and March industrial production remains anchored at previous levels. Stable index, in the surveys of Unioncamere Lombardia, even if in the annual comparison there is an increase of 2.5%.

Balance in chiaroscuro, which on the one hand sees a slight drop in the use of production capacity (in any case always above the 70% threshold) and a weakening of many variables on an annual basis (revenues, as well as internal orders and the production). Although overall, thanks to the previous harvest, the days of guaranteed production are still 90, close to the all-time highs. While in general expectations for the coming months are oriented upwards: between production, turnover, domestic or foreign demand and employment, in all cases the optimists prevail, pushing the balance of responses upwards.

However, the most reassuring aspect concerns the labor market, which continues to improve, with a positive balance of 1% between incoming and outgoing flows, the highest value since 2018.

«The year 2023 of the Lombard industry – explains the president of Confindustria Lombardia Francesco Buzzella – opens under the banner of the risk of stagnation. As at the national level, also in Lombardy exports are driving orders and turnover, in addition to previous orders and rising prices which continue to support sales. The chiaroscuro trend also emerges from the strong lack of homogeneity of the productive sectors: in addition to textiles, the sectors most in difficulty, especially in relation to the high prices of raw materials, are chemicals – greatly penalized by the drop in domestic orders -, food, iron and steel and the paper-press. While from the point of view of production an immediate trend reversal is needed, the state of health of the Lombardy labor market is confirmed to be excellent and this could testify that in Lombardy the misalignment between supply and demand is starting to decrease. However, we have to wait for further confirmations, which could come in the coming quarters from the effects of the Labor Law. In fact, the decree approved by the Government could provide a double boost: first of all, to incentivize hiring and, secondly, – with the cut in the tax wedge, a measure appreciated by Confindustria and which we hope will become structural from 2024 – to put more money into pocket to Italian workers and families. This, in addition to giving some relief to the incomes of households hit hard by high energy prices and inflation, could favor the recovery of consumption by giving a boost to domestic production. The reform of the Citizenship Income is also very positive, which however needs to be further improved, in particular by better framing the definition of ’employable’ recipients and placing it alongside active policy plans and specific professional requalification».

«The results for the first quarter – comments Gian Domenico Auricchio, President of Unioncamere Lombardia – leave us hopeful for 2023 as well: the climate of confidence found in companies with the consequent increase in the employment balance to +1% is an excellent sign that lead to a future normalization of industrial activity’.