Lega under 8% in the polls but Salvini’s leadership is firm until the 2024 European Championships
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“Don’t listen to the polls,” said Matteo Salvini in the last meeting with his parliamentarians. In fact, the data is not exciting. The League ended up under 8% and its fourth place is strongly undermined by the third pole of Calenda and Renzi. The rumors of questioning Salvini’s leadership (today the federal council is scheduled) are therefore not far-fetched and, moreover, they already emerged the day after the vote of 25 September, in which the result of the Carroccio went beyond what was expected worst expectations. Having said all this (and also for this reason) the leadership of the current secretary remains firm. At least for now.
A crisis in the second majority party is unlikely
In fact, no one thinks that with a centre-right government born just a month ago, a crisis can open within the second party of the coalition. The aftermath would also be inevitable on the life of the executive. The first to know is Giorgia Meloni who also for this reason has recognized him as deputy prime minister and who continues to avoid reacting even to some statements by the minister of infrastructure who more than once has tried to countermean the prime minister.
The electoral test in Lombardy
And then – another “detail” not to be overlooked – there is the imminent electoral test in Lombardy. The confirmation of Attilio Fontana – strongly supported by Salvini – at the helm of the main Italian region today seems very probable given that the opposition is divided and presents itself with at least 2 candidates: Letizia Moratti with the third pole and Pierfrancesco Majorino for the Democratic Party ( M5s not yet received). Certainly the result of the individual political forces will weigh and if the League, which also has the candidate for governor on its side, does not recover a few points on the Brothers of Italy, the malaise in the Carroccio is destined to increase. But always up to a certain point.
There is currently no alternative leader to Salvini
At the moment there is no alternative to Salvini and until he reveals himself, the secretary will easily blunt the pin pricks that come to him from inside and outside via Bellerio. The hypothesis that Luca Zaia will arrive in his place is currently out of reach. And the president of Veneto himself made it clear. Also because we must first understand what the League wants to be. The death of Roberto Maroni with Umberto Bossi still in hospital photograph the end of a story that is not resurrected by relaunching the reform for differentiated autonomy every time the government returns. And the confirmation comes precisely from the voters, from that hard core of the Carroccio who, after having voted en masse for the autonomy of the Veneto and a little less for that of Lombardy, chose in any case to abandon Padania by choosing the Melonian tricolor, which brought Fdi to be the first party also in the Northern Regions. There are those who attribute this defeat solely and exclusively to Salvini. And of course, like any leader, the greater the responsibility of him. But that’s not enough to put it aside.
The moment of truth? It will arrive with the European 2024
The moment of truth will probably come with the vote of the European elections, in the spring of 2024: there a line will be drawn because from there the balance of power within the center-right and in the government will also be reviewed; until then the Captain, despite the open leaks, will remain at the helm of the ship.
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