Italian intelligence: “Putin has failed his objectives. Russia uses the lull to prepare for a long war, but suffers from sanctions.

ROME. «For the Russians, an operational pause is essential to regenerate and prepare for a long-lasting war. Moscow is trying to exploit this period of relative stagnation to restart the activities of the Russian military-production complex which, while remaining significant in terms of production capacity, is beginning to feel the impact of Western sanctions”. This is what we read in the annual report of the Italian intelligence to Parliament presented today. The year, he adds, “also ended with President Putin’s recognition of the difficulties encountered in the Donbass in countering the Ukrainian Forces, a signal that, linked to the proposed restructuring of the Russian Armed Forces – with an increase in the total up to 1.5 million soldiers – confirms the intent to continue the conflict until the key objectives sought by Moscow are achieved”.

Internal consensus at the Russian summit begins to decline

“Although a large part of the Russian population continues to support the work of the Russian summit, thanks to the pervasiveness of media propaganda and official narrative, there is a decrease in consensus in public polls, also witnessed by the number of people leaving the country” highlights the annual intelligence report to Parliament presented today.

Russia will continue cyber attacks and disinformation ++ Also blackmail and leverage as migrants and energy

“Moscow will not stop interfering in the political dynamics and decision-making processes within the NATO countries”, writes the Italian intelligence, “resorting even more than in the past to coercive and manipulative methods, such as cyber attacks, disinformation, blackmail and the use of levers such as migration and energy, the latter destined to lose relevance with the Western commitment to find alternatives to energy dependence on Russia”.

«Putin’s goals failed by not understanding the Ukrainian scenario»

According to 007, the conflict in Ukraine «started by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022 has simultaneously: upset the security balance, bringing war back to the European continent; highlighted the failure of the strategic objectives set by Russia (including the change of government in Kiev and the acquisition of territories of strategic interest), which Moscow had deemed easy and quick to achieve; induced the West to reflect on the effective effectiveness and consistency of the Russian military instrument, in the light of the progress of operations in Ukraine, and on the escalating risks associated with the continuation of the conflict. In particular, Putin’s strategic failures appear to be attributable to interpretative deficits of the Ukrainian scenario, to the underestimation of the scope, speed and cohesion of the Western response to the invasion in Ukraine and to the underestimation of the tenacity of the people and of the Kiev forces”. Italian intelligence adds: «It is estimated that President Putin was induced to act by his belief that the Russian Armed Forces were capable of achieving military victory in a few days, thus avoiding the overlapping of sanctions packages by the westerners (as instead happened)».

Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is unlikely

The document writes that “the attention of national intelligence is heightened with respect to the risks of escalation linked to the continuation of the conflict, including the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia assessed as unlikely at the time of this Report”.

Not just war: NGO ships are an advantage for traffickers

Several other national security emergencies are also covered in the report. There is an increase in sea rescue carried out by NGO ships, mainly in the Libyan Sar area, writes the intelligence. These activities “are often advertised on social networks by facilitators of irregular immigration as a guarantee of greater security on the journey to Europe”. In this context, the presence of humanitarian vessels represents “a logistical advantage for the criminal organizations that manage the smuggling of migrants, allowing them to adapt their modus operandi according to the possibility of reducing the quality of the boats used, correspondingly increasing illicit profits, but exposing the people on board to a more concrete risk of shipwreck”.

Anarchists have become a more concrete threat, 31 actions in 2022

The anarcho-insurrectionist threat is the “most concrete and vital one, characterized by militant components determined to promote, through highly instigatory propaganda, planning of struggle centered on the typical “destructive direct action”. This is highlighted by the annual intelligence report to Parliament presented today and which recorded 31 attacks in this area in 2022. The Cospito case has given rise to “a vehement mobilization, supported and animated by numerous acronyms, Italian and foreign, which refer , for operational methods, to the subversive-terrorist parable of Fai/Fr». The intelligence therefore monitors “the activism of those components that “on the square” act as a support for operational activations, trying to catch in time signals of troublemaking planning aimed at polluting and radicalizing specific themes and mobilizations taking place on the territory»