Istat 2023 report, one in two young people is in difficulty. All data

ROME. To counter the unstoppable demographic decline, and therefore the collapse of the GDP and ultimately the inevitable decline of the country, Italy must invest more in young people, their training, their well-being, suggests Istat in its Annual Report in which he outlines the lights and shadows of the current phase of the country, pointing out in particular that in the 18-34 age group almost one out of two young Italians presents one or more difficult situations in terms of education, work, health or the territory in which he lives.

The photograph that our statistical institute takes, as every year – illustrated in the Chamber by the president of the institute, Francesco Maria Chelli – is wide-ranging, ranging from the new critical issues following the end of the pandemic (the sharp rise in energy prices and of raw materials, accentuated by the conflict in Ukraine), which conditioned the evolution of the economy, with significant increases in production costs for businesses and consumer prices for families, with favorable signals such as the recovery phase of the production activity that also continued in 2022. And then it ranges from environmental criticalities to the challenges of the ecological transition up to the capacity for innovation and resilience of our business system.

Recovery economy
However, we start from the data of our economy, largely positive. In fact, at the end of the year the trade balance returned to surplus. Encouraging data also comes from the labor market, in which the increase in employment was associated with a decrease in the unemployed and inactive. In the first quarter of 2023 there was a positive economic trend for GDP, higher than that of the other economies of the European Union, driven above all by the services sector. Manufacturing, on the other hand, is showing signs of a slowdown.

Fewer births, older people

On the demographic front, the effects of population aging are becoming increasingly evident: the substantial drop in births recorded in 2022 compared to 2019, around 27,000 fewer births (we have fallen below 400,000) is 80% due percent to the decrease in women between 15 and 49 years of age and for the remaining 20 percent to the drop in fertility (1.24 children on average per woman in 2022 compared to 1.27 in 2019). On the other hand, the deaths reached 713 thousand.

At the end of 2022, the resident population thus amounted to 58,850,717 units, 179,416 less than a year earlier. Between 2021 and 2050 in Italy it is estimated that the resident population will decrease by almost 5 million, down to just over 54 million. The aging process will continue (in 2023 the median age, 48.3 years, is the highest among the EU27 countries) and the age structure of the population will change to a large extent already in the period 2021-2041, when the age group up to 24 years of age will decrease by about 2.5 million (-18.5 per cent) and that between 25 and 64 years of age by 5.3 million (-16.7 per cent). On the contrary, the population between 65 and 69 years of age will grow by almost one million (+27.8 per cent) and by 3.8 million (+36.2 per cent) for those aged 70 and over, which in 2041 will include the of the baby boomer.

Fewer and fewer students
Considering the population between 0 and 24 years and the impact on the education system, in 2041 a minimal reduction (5.3 per cent) is expected for children between 0 and 5 years, a drop of more than 25% for young people aged between 11 and 18 (in secondary education), and just under 20 per cent for the age groups corresponding to elementary (6-10 years) and university (19-24 years) education. With reference to the population of working age, and considering the trend towards raising the retirement age, for the 25-69 age group the reduction will be equal to 12.3 per cent.

Investing in the new generations
In short, aging is destined to increase in the coming years, with negative effects on the growth rate of per capita GDP, reports Istat. Which suggests investing in the well-being of the new generations, to ensure that the insufficient generational turnover is partly compensated by their greater valorisation. However, the indicators concerning the well-being of young people in Italy are at the lowest levels in Europe.

Under 34s in trouble
In 2022, almost one in two young people (47.7 per cent of 18-34 year olds) shows at least one sign of deprivation in one of the key domains of well-being (Education and Work, Social cohesion, Health, Subjective well-being, Territory). Of these young people, over 1.6 million (equal to 15.5 per cent of
18-34 years old), are multi-deprived or show signs of deprivation in at least 2 domains. The levels of deprivation and multi-deprivation are systematically higher in the 25-34 age group, which is the most vulnerable. As if that were not enough, in Italy the mechanism of intergenerational transmission of poverty (the so-called “poverty trap”) is more intense than in most European Union countries: almost a third of adults (25-49 years) at risk of poverty comes from families who, when they were 14-year-old boys, were in poor financial condition.

The investments you need
The considerable financial resources put in place to get out of the crisis, starting from the almost 200 billion of the Pnrr, should support investments that accompany and strengthen the well-being of young people in the various stages of life, intervening from the first years of life thus suggests the The 2023 Report points out that Italy spends a share of 1.2% of GDP on social services provided to families and minors, against 2.5% in France and 3.7% in Germany. And also on the education front there is a “lower commitment” of our country, which commits just 4.1% of GDP against 5.2 of France, 4.6 of Sagna and 4.5 of Germany and a EU average of 4.8%.

But if the most recent demographic scenarios tell us that within 20 years Italy will undergo a substantial reduction in the population of study and working age, however – underlines the Istat Report – the contraction of the number of students (as mentioned ) can be mitigated by decreases in upper secondary school dropouts and an increase in participation rates in tertiary education. In both cases, according to Istat, significant progress has already been made in Italy in the last decade, but the distance from the most virtuous countries of the Union is still wide, particularly in the southern regions.

In the South hunger for skills
The major criticalities, particularly in the southern regions, also concern the skills of graduates, which are on average lower than those measured in the Centre-North. Almost a fifth of young people aged between 15 and 29 in Italy do not work or study (the highest figure among EU countries after Romania), and up to a third in Sicily. Encouraging their entry into the training system and into the labor market could in short help reduce the dissipation of young people’s human capital, an increasingly scarce resource in the near future.

The effects of the decline in the working-age population and aging are already noticeable today, it is reported. Despite the recent favorable trend in employment, Italy still ranks last in Europe and, at the same time, holds the record (after Bulgaria) for the high average age of the employed. Raising employment rates, especially for young people and women, could compensate for the expected loss in the number of employed persons due to demographic dynamics and reduce gender inequality in incomes. The effects of demographic trends on the labor market should therefore not be understood as an inescapable fate.

Recover structural delays
“Our country – is the conclusion – can achieve ample margins of containment of the unfavorable effects of the demographic dynamic by acting on the recovery of structural delays. From this perspective, to compete in the knowledge society, investment in human capital and the use of qualified professionals are essential, together with the modernization of the production system”.