Inflation slows down in January: +10% on year and +0.1% on monthly basis

Listen to the audio version of the article

In January 2023, Istat calculates that the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis and 10.0% on an annual basis, from +11.6% in the previous month. The preliminary estimate was +10.1%.

The decline in the inflation rate, notes the Institute of Statistics, is mainly due to the strong slowdown on a trend basis in the prices of regulated energy goods (which went from 70.2% to -12.0%) and, to a lesser extent, those of unregulated energy (+63.3% to +59.3%), unprocessed food (+9.5% to +8.0%) and recreational, cultural and health care services person (+6.2% to +5.5%); the effects of these trends were only partially offset by the acceleration in the prices of durable goods (from +6.4% to +6.8%), non-durable goods (from +6.1% to +6.7 %) and services relating to housing (from +2.1% to +3.2%).

«In January, inflation shows a clear slowdown, falling to +10.0% – notes a note from Istat -. The decrease was affected by the performance of the most volatile components of the consumer price index, strongly conditioned by the trend reversal of regulated energy goods (-12.0% on an annual basis). However, the tensions on consumer prices of various categories of products, such as processed food, other goods (durable and non-durable) and housing services, which contribute to the slight acceleration of the basic component, remain widespread».

Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, accelerated from +5.8% to +6.0%, while that excluding energy only remained stable at +6.2%. On an annual basis, the prices of goods show a slowing profile (from +17.1% to +14.1%), while that relating to services shows a slight increase (from +4.1% to +4.2% ); therefore the negative inflationary differential between the latter and the prices of goods is reduced (from -13.0 in December to -9.9 percentage points).

The trend dynamics of the prices of foodstuffs, for home care and personal care eased (from +12.6% to +12.0%), while on the contrary that of products with a high frequency of purchase accentuated, those of packaged consumer goods up from +8.5% to +8.9%. The cyclical increase in the general index is mainly due to the prices of services for the home (+1.6%), processed food (+1.3%), durable goods (+1.1%) and non durables (+0.7%), unprocessed food (+0.6%) and unregulated energy (+0.5%); a containment effect instead derives from the drop in the prices of regulated energy (-25.7%) and those of transport-related services (-1.7% due to seasonal factors).