Inflation down with energy: +7.6% in March. The shopping cart is still running, but slowing down (+12.6%)

MILAN – The recovery from the peaks of inflation continues, above all thanks to the slowdown in energy prices. In the final Istat data for March, some timid signs can be seen even for the largest goods in the basket, with the shopping cart stabilising. Hope therefore that the peak – of the whole basket and not just of volatile energy – is behind us. The price race remains an unfair tax for families: from the ISTAT breakdown it emerges that in the first quarter of the year the families that spend less (therefore, tending to be poorer) experienced a price increase of more than 12% while those who spend the most (usually richer) stopped at just over 8%.

The slowdown in inflation

For March, therefore, Istat estimates that the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded a decrease of 0.4% on a monthly basis and an increase of 7.6 % on an annual basis, from +9.1% in the previous month; the preliminary estimate was +7.7%. In its comment, the Institute writes that “the phase of rapid return of inflation continues (down to +7.6%), driven by the dynamics of the prices of Energy Goods, both of the regulated component and of the unregulated one (both in sharp decline on a cyclical basis). Non-regulated energy goods (from +40.8% to +18.9%) continue their decline and the decline in regulated energy goods is accentuated (from -16.4% to -20.3%), “whose effects are only partially offset by the acceleration in the prices of unprocessed food (from +8.7% to +9.1%), those of services relating to housing (from +3.3% to +3.5% ), recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +6.1% to +6.3%) and tobacco (from +1.8% to +2.5%)”.

Core inflation and the shopping cart

Again Istat explains that “core inflation”, net of energy and fresh food, remains stable at +6.3%, as does that net of energy goods alone, which stands at +6.4 %. The prices of food, home and personal care goods (the so-called shopping cart) recorded a slight deceleration in trend terms (from +12.7% to +12.6%), while those of high purchase frequency show a more conspicuous slowdown (from +9.0% to +7.6%). And in fact, when commenting, the statisticians underline these aspects: “Moreover, despite the persistence of upward tensions in the unprocessed food and services sector, there are signs of an exhaustion of the acceleration phase which, in recent months, had characterized the dynamics of the prices of large sectors of the basket. After the progression that characterized 2022, core inflation stabilizes at +6.3%. Finally, the prices of the “shopping cart” slow down on a trend basis, falling to + 12.6%”.

For consumers, the latter still remains a fact that gives little relief. The Unc calculates that “the drop from 12.7% to 12.6% is imperceptible. A blow, that of the Voghera housewife who goes to the market every day, equal to 781 euros per family, which reaches 963 for a couple with 1 child, 1062 euros for one with 2, 1259 for one with 3 or more children”.

Poorer families, more penalized

If one looks at the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), it increases by 0.8% on a monthly basis, due to the end of the seasonal sales which the NIC does not take into account, and by 8.1% on an annual basis (in clear slowdown from +9.8% in February); the preliminary estimate was +8.2%.

And this is where the account kicks in on the different impacts on families: in the first quarter of 2023 the impact of inflation, measured by the HICP, is greater on families with lower spending power than on those with higher spending levels (+12, 5% and +8.2% respectively). For further information, see p. 10.