In Lombardy, President Fontana is a winner on all fronts

All possible scenarios for the next regional elections in Lombardy point to the current president of the centre-right coalition Attilio Fontana as the winner. It is the result of a detailed survey by the Ipsos institute which evaluated the different outcomes based on the three main challengers to the February 12-13 vote: Fontana, the centre-left candidate Pierfrancesco Majorino and the third pole candidate Letizia Moratti.

The three percentage ranges estimated on the basis of list voting are 40.8-46.8 per cent for Fontana; 31-36 percent for Majorino and 17.5-20.5 percent for Moratti. And the estimate for the turnout appears high: between 62 and 67 percent.

These are results that do not concern the split vote. The forecasts assume that the Brothers of Italy (which consists of 24.2-29.2 per cent of valid votes), Forza Italia, Lega (9.3-12.3 per cent) and the other centre-right lists and parties will join the current governor. As is the case for Majorino, who coagulates the votes of the Democratic Party (14.9-17.9 percent of valid votes), the 5 Star Movement (5.9-7.9 percent) and the other left-wing lists. While Moratti, in addition to the minor civic lists, concentrates on himself the panorama of centrist parties made up mostly of Italia viva and Azione.

Other scenarios: disjoint and tandem voting

Other estimates if we refer to the hypothesis of split voting. In this case, the loss of 4 percentage points for Attilio Fontana is significant, which would facilitate the takeover of Letizia Moratti. This is because the voters who vote for Lega, Forza Italia and centre-right parties look favorably on the candidate. But even if Fontana has little hold on the electorate of the Brothers of Italy, the latter would in any case not willingly go towards Moratti. Which does not even reach the sufficiency among the voters of the center themselves, who instead appreciate Majorino and in some cases even prefer him. The centre-left candidate, on the other hand, makes up for the lack of support from 5-star voters with centre-left votes.

The hypothesis of a tandem between Majorino and Moratti instead opens up two possibilities. In any case, however, Attilio Fontana’s chances of victory would not be hampered. And quite the contrary, the union of the two candidates could help him in his race. Indeed, with Moratti as president and Majorino as deputy, centre-left supporters would find themselves lost: 4 out of 10 voters from the Democratic Party, 1 out of 3 from other lists and only 1 out of 4 from the M5s would vote for Moratti as president. The pentastellati voters are in fact a separate matter, because the creation of a wide field would probably lead to the exit of the 5 stars. While an autonomous candidacy would be favored by about 70 percent of the movement’s supporters.

Conversely, with Majorino as candidate for the presidency and Moratti as deputy, the percentage of abandonment by the Third Pole electorate would increase. Furthermore, very few centre-right votes would flow into the vote for Majorino, thus supporting Attilio Fontana.

Judgment on the administration in Lombardy and issues to be addressed

At the threshold of sufficiency: 5.6 out of 10. It is the vote that the interviewees give to the current president of the region Attilio Fontana. On the other hand, with regard to the quality of life in their area, residents of the Lombardy region say they are satisfied on average, with a 7.1 out of 10.

The objectives to be addressed, according to the voters, are local health (mentioned by 62 percent of those interviewed), citizen safety (40 percent) and specialist healthcare (32 percent). This was followed by regional transport (32 percent) and support for the economy and businesses (27 percent).