“Immigration will improve public finances” – Corriere.it

The maintenance of Italian public accounts will depend on migratory flows in the coming years. The arrival of a foreign population of working age could improve the debt/GDP ratio by up to 30 points. what we read in the report accompanying the def just fired by the council of ministers: a thesis already hypothesized by numerous demographic studies but which for the first time it breaks through to the centre-right.

According to these calculations the reduction or increase of migratory flows in Italy will have an impact (positive or negative) of up to 30 percentage points. Given the demographic structure of immigrants entering Italy, the significant effect on the resident population of working age and therefore on the job offer can be read in the document. For example a a 33% increase in the population of foreign origin would bring down the public debt by 30 points. If, on the other hand, the contribution of immigration to the total number of residents in Italy were to slow down or fall, the balance of public finances would worsen since on the one hand there would be less manpower to support economic development and on the other would increase the demand for welfare services and sanitary.

In other words, given the birth rate trend in Italy (which year after year breaks down negative records) in the short and medium term we cannot count on a sudden boom in births. Immigration – again according to the analysis accompanying the final – not the only variable demographic that risks impacting public finances: there are also the lengthening of life expectancy and fertility (which decreases and increases the debt).

If the goal is to support the state budget thanks to the work (and taxes) that come from new residents, need to reverse the current trend. A study by the Leone Moressa foundation has highlighted that 2020 saw a decline in the number of foreign-born taxpayers for the first time (-1.8 percent), which translated into even more significant drops in declared income (-4.3 percent) and in Irpef paid (-8.5 percent). The same study predicted for a rebound from subsequent years.

In 2018 the then president of INPS Tito Boeri for his part, he stated that in order to maintain the relationship between those who receive a pension and those who work at sustainable levels, the number of immigrants who will work in our country is crucial. With particular reference, Boeri himself specified, to regular immigration. The thesis unleashed the ire of the then interior minister Matteo Salvinitoday back as Deputy Prime Minister.

There State General Accounting Office calculate instead that, in the light of current scenarios, the Italian population will fall to 55 million against the current approximately 60 and that the on the contrary, the percentage of over 65s will rise to 18.4 million. A proportion that would effectively make current levels of welfare unsustainable.