Himalaya, we risk losing 80% of Asia’s glaciers within the century

The calls to try to stem, if not curb, the effects of climate change have now become innumerable. Among the last one that comes fromInternational Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and which photographs the state of health – it would be better to say of disease – of the water reserves of the Asian mountains, from Afghanistan to Burma. In fact, the report just released by the center speaks of “unprecedented changes, largely irreversible on human timescales, driven above all by climate change”. And against which monitoring, protection strategies for the most vulnerable ecosystems and populations, and above all adequate adaptation and financing plans are needed.

The area analyzed by the report is that of the region of Hindu Kush Himalayas, the region where – except for the polar areas – most of the ice on Earth is concentrated. But that is increasingly at risk. In fact, estimates say that the loss of glaciers has accelerated, increasing by 65% ​​in the years between 2010 and 2019, compared to 2000-2009. A phenomenon which, albeit at lower rates than the average, has also affected the Karakorumthe mountain range once known for its anomalyor rather because in spite of the global trend, it showed a growth of glaciers.

At the same time it is decreased the amount of snow – minus five days of coverage every ten years – and the forecasts for the years to come are also nothing but impressive. If we manage to keep the increase in temperatures within 2°C – reads the report – we could lose up to half of the glaciers in the area compared to 2015, but if temperatures were to rise even further – up to 4°C – the percentages would be even more disastrous, reaching 80%. And for the past seventy years, temperatures in the region have risen by about 0.28°C every ten years.

Outside the numbers, there are the assessments of the impact that these changes would have on the population, which perhaps give a better idea of ​​the environmental disaster looming over the Asian mountains. An impact that, to tell the truth, has already begun to be felt, with the collapse of ice, rocks and floods, with their devastating effects on the population, as occurred in the Uttarakhand disaster but also in the floods that hit Pakistan. In fact, the ICIMOD report also focuses on the effects that the loss of glaciers would have on the population, considering that around 2 billion people depend on the waters contained in the Asian mountains and rivers in the area. Landslides and floods will increase, experts predict, and so will the availability of water, but only until around 2050, and then begin to decline.

For mountain populations, the impacts would concern practically all aspects of subsistence, with the loss of crops and livestock, the destruction of irrigation systems, the degradation of landscapes and therefore also a reduction in tourism. “Current adaptation efforts are wholly insufficient to address the challenges posed by the changing cryosphere and extreme events that we know will hit these already vulnerable communities with more force and complexity – commented Amina Maharjan, Senior Livelihoods Specialist at ICIMOD – We are extremely concerned that without increased support these communities will not be able to cope. Adaptation systems need to be upgraded urgently.”