growth slows down in 2023, difficult context but room for improvement- Corriere.it

The estimated growth of the GDP in 2022 of + 3.3%, with an upward revision compared to the forecasts of the Economic and Financial Document (Def) of April (+ 3.1%). In 2023, on the other hand, it will slow down to + 0.6%, and then rise again (in this case the estimates confirm the forecasts of the Def) to + 1.8% in 2024 and + 1.5% in 2025. The forecast for an increase in GDP for this year it is revised upwards, reads the Nadef, thanks to the higher than expected growth recorded in the first half of the year and despite a slight decline in GDP in the second half of the year. THEThe Council of Ministers approved the Update of the Def 2022 on Wednesday 28 September. Nadef’s economic forecasts are based, as in previous planning documents, on a prudential approach – the government specifies in the document -. Even in a difficult context such as the current one, however, there is scope for these forecasts to be exceeded.

The update of the forecast also highlights an increase in the path of inflation and wage growth – reads the document viewed by Ansa – however, it continues to be expected that the inflation rate will begin to decline by the end of this year. The trend net debt in 2022 drops to 5.1% (compared to the 5.6% target indicated in April with the Def) and will stand at 3.4% in 2023still down from the estimate of the Def (3.9%).

In the updated projections for 2022, public finance benefits from the positive trend in revenues and the moderation of primary expenditure recorded so far this year – explains Nadef -, while it is affected by the impact on debt service of the increase in interest rates and the revaluation of the notional of inflation-linked government bonds.

The debt / GDP ratio is expected to decline sharply this year, to 145.4% (from 150.3% in 2021), more than assumed in April (146.8%). The decline will continue until reaching 139.3% in 2025 (141.2% the estimate of the Def). In 2023 the debt is estimated at 143.2% (from 145% of the April estimate) and in 2024 at 140.9% (143.2% in the April Def estimate).