Growth in 2023 and the surprising dynamism of the Italian economy

In September, the MEF’s GDP estimates seemed optimistic if not exaggerated (+0.6%). From Bank of Italy to the IMF, everyone is raising their forecasts: for the EU Commission, growth will be +0.8%. The Italian production system has handled the shocks well

When in the Nadef end of September, presented immediately after the elections by the outgoing Draghi government, the Mes estimated growth of 0.6 percent for 2023 there were few who believed it. With the price of gas then at 200 euro/MWh and the ECB’s monetary tightening in progress, almost all national and international observers predicted much more contained growth for Italy, or even a recession. For example the European Commission in its autumn forecasts it estimated growth of 0.3 per cent for Italy, the same forecast for the Bank of ItalyWhile the OECD it stopped at 0.2 per cent and the IMF’s October outlook announced a recession (-0.2 percent).