GDP, maxi rebound in the first quarter. Growth at +0.5%

MILAN – Rebound well beyond expectations for Italian GDP in the first quarter. According to preliminary data released today by theIstat the cyclical growth, i.e. compared to the previous month, was 0.5%, far above the expected 0.1%, and in contrast with the -0.1% of the fourth quarter of 2022. On an annual basis, however, GDP it advanced by 1.8% against the 1.4% expected. The result is that the growth acquired, i.e. the figure that would be reached if the next 3 quarters showed zero growth, would be 0.8% for 2023. This figure is one step away (0.9%) from the growth planned for the entire year in the Def in the trend framework, i.e. with unchanged policies and also close to that of the programmatic framework (+1%), which incorporates the effects of future government measures.

“The preliminary estimate, which is always provisional in nature, reflects on the supply side growth in both the industrial and services sectors, while the primary sector is stationary”, explains Istat. “On the demand side, the contribution to GDP growth is positive for both the national component and the foreign component”, adds the Institute of Statistics.

Zero growth in Germany

The Italian data is accepted by Paul Gentiloni, to the Eurogroup, together with the Spanish one as “better than expected” and “encouraging” because it shows “a European economy that continues to show some resistance in a difficult global context”. The tricolor growth also stands out in comparison to the German one.

In Germany, GDP remained unchanged in the first quarter of the year compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 (-0.1% with price and calendar adjustments), after the -0.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 (data revised to down from the previous -0.4%). On the other hand, the French data is slightly positive. The economy beyond the Alps recorded an expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, supported by the dynamism of industrial production and foreign trade. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.8% compared to the same quarter of 2022.

Italian industry is also giving positive signals

Returning to Italy, other positive data was produced by Istat in the morning on the industry front. Turnover, net of seasonal factors, started to grow again after the setback in January: +1.3% quarterly in February, driven by a plus sign both on the domestic market (+1.7%) and on the abroad (+0.9%). Taking into consideration the different calendar, turnover rose by 7.2% in trend terms.

In this series of good news, salaries remain at a standstill. In fact, Istat again says that “on average for the first quarter, despite the progressive slowdown in price growth, the difference between the dynamics of inflation (IPCA) and that of contractual wages remains above seven percentage points”. The average hourly wage in the period January-March 2023 grew by 2.2% compared to the same period in 2022, explains the Institute of Statistics. There were 32 contracts awaiting renewal at the end of March 2023, involving approximately 6.9 million employees, 55.6% of the total.