Gas price on the rise: over 38 euros per MWh
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The price of gas closed above 38 euros per megawatt hour after a maximum for the day at 40 euros. Futures on TTFs in Amsterdam mark a +6.27%. The sprint is dictated, on the one hand, by the extension of maintenance work on the Norwegian plants until mid-July. On the other hand, the expected heat wave in Europe and Asia with higher energy consumption.
It returns to the levels of last March, after the price had fallen below 23 euros per MWh in recent weeks, to its lowest level in two years, after the unprecedented surge of last summer which led to a record of 346 euros in August.
For the winter, prices at 40 euros per MWh
In addition to the maintenance work on the North Sea which is decreasing the flows arriving from Norway and the heat wave in China which has revived the demand for energy, Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, points out that the price forecasts for the next winter have never dropped below 40 euros. “I’m not surprised by this rebound. The very low prices of the past few days were the result of stocks, of the immediate. We begin to think about next winter, albeit slowly. We must remember that the crisis that began almost two years ago is not over: it doesn’t take much to bring prices down or up», explains Tabarelli.
The Groningen deposit
One fact is added to this scenario, recalls the president of Nomisma Energia: “These days in the Netherlands we should decide when to completely close the Groningen field, the largest in Europe, capable of producing 70 billion cubic meters at its peak about fifteen years ago. Last year it produced 12 – they arrive in Italy via the Gries pass – and we should close it in the next two years. So while the price of gas is rebounding, there are those who decide to zero production, or to close nuclear or coal-fired plants. It’s a paradox. Let’s not complain if prices go up. If next winter will be cold and there will be no gas from Russia, the prospects are not optimal», concludes Tabarelli.
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