Flights, over 40,000 new planes are arriving (and 2.3 million jobs) – Corriere.it

Over the next twenty years, over 40,000 latest generation aircraft will be delivered worldwide, particularly in Asia, for a turnover of 4 trillion dollars. Half will be used to replace older aircraft, the other half will help the companies’ expansion plans. While the sector will need another 2.3 million workers which will be added to those that will replace the profiles who have retired in the meantime. Put together, the reports by Airbus, Boeing (the two giants that dominate the market) and Avolon (a major aircraft leasing company) show a sector that after Covid is aiming for record growth levels.

The sector

In 2023, the Airbus Global Market Forecast calculates that if internal flights, worldwide, have already exceeded the offer before the pandemic (+8%), on the international side there is still 11% to recover (with regional differences significant: the US has already filled the gap). Air transport represents 4.1% of GDP, has a turnover of 3.5 trillion dollars and employs 87.7 million people recalls the European manufacturer. This year, the number of flights is only 3% lower than pre-Covid, and we expect full passenger recovery by next year, comments Darren Hulst, vice president of Commercial Marketing at Boeing.

The middle class

The optimism is also strengthened by the demographic change which will support travel demand for the next few years: between now and 2040 the middle class in the world will increase by 500 million people. There are half a billion potential new customers not only for the Economy class of airlines, but also for Premium, Business and First. According to Boeing forecasts, approximately 2.28 million new personnel will be needed by 2042, not only among pilots and flight attendants, but also among maintenance technicians, technological experts, etc.

The scenarios

It should be noted that the market over the next twenty years could be influenced by various factors such as wars, health crises, diplomatic clashes. But the scenarios of Airbus, Boeing and Avolon all point straight towards more than 40,000 new aircraft to be delivered. The leasing company estimates that by 2042, 95% of the global fleet will be equipped with the latest generation and low-emission technology. As for deliveries Avolon expects 44,300, considering only the passengers.

The domain of the single corridor

For Airbus, 40,850 passenger and cargo aircraft will be delivered in the period 2023-2042. For Boeing – which also includes regional jets – deliveries rise to 42,595. In fact, the army of operational twin-engine aircraft will tend to double in twenty years: both aerospace giants in fact predict that there will be a decrease from 24,500 aircraft in service in 2022 to 46,560 (Airbus) or 48,600 (Boeing). Eight out of ten new deliveries will be of single-aisle jets for short and medium-haul flights.

The areas

The demand will come from the East agree all the insiders. China and the rest of Asia will dominate the market for new aircraft. For Airbus, for example, 46% of deliveries will be to carriers in and around Beijing. For Boeing, the share stands at 42%. China alone will receive between a fifth and a quarter – depending on forecasts – of the latest generation jets between now and 2042, more or less those of the whole of Europe. Bringing up the rear is still Africa with 2-3%.