EU alliances, Meloni looks to the post-vote in Spain

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Giorgia Meloni in these hours is much more attentive to the outcome of the vote in Spain than to the aftermath caused by internal controversies. The latest: the words spoken by the prime minister in Palermo on Marina Berlusconi in reference to the attacks by the eldest daughter of the Forza Italia founder on the Florence prosecutor’s office. “He’s not a political subject,” Meloni said succinctly, arousing more than a few raised eyebrows among the Azzurri. Yesterday, however, Marina herself intervened to deny disagreements with the Prime Minister: “Maximum respect and esteem for Meloni”. Case closed (apparently).

What is certain is that the Fdi leader does not want to embarrass the ally in any way. Forza Italia is in fact the only Italian party in the EPP and at least until the next European elections (June 2024) it must remain healthy to facilitate understanding with the Melonian right of the Conservatives. Meloni counts on it. The prime minister is ready to invest all of her weight in the electoral appointment. The Huffingtonpost reveals that she would be willing to present herself as the head of the list in all districts. And here we return to Spain and to the vote that will decide who will govern from the Palazzo della Moncloa and who – not irrelevant detail – will preside over the Spanish-led European semester which began on 1 July and during which decisive choices will be made starting from the new rules of the Stability Pact.

The latest polls confirm Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the Partido popular (Pp) who had already swept the administrative elections at the end of May, causing the early resignation of the premier, the socialist Pedro Sanchez. However, the polls themselves agree that Feijóo needs allies in order to have an absolute majority. The most probable hypothesis is that the leader of the PP is looking to the right, indeed to the extreme right, ie Vox, the party of Santiago Abascal Conde, with which he already governs in some regions. Meloni’s Ascabal is a great ally. It was the president of Fdi who favored his entry into the conservative group and continued to support him even as prime minister: “I hope Vox will play an important role in the next government, the time for patriots has come,” he said in a video message about ten days ago. Meloni is betting on the PP-Vox government that in the aspirations of the Fdi leader it would represent an anticipation of the alliance in the next European legislature between the Popolari and the Conservatives.

The numbers at the moment say that this is an unfeasible plan. But between now and next June there are other important electoral appointments that could strengthen this perspective, or at least make the re-edition of the Ursula majority, already suffering and divided above all on the green transition chapter, much more complex in Brussels. This was seen during the vote on the law for the restoration of nature, presented by the Commission and against which the EPP took sides together with the right, thus breaking the majority. The law passed and Manfred Weber’s people suffered a severe defeat. But the difference between those in favor and against was only 12 votes.

So far all the latest electoral appointments have confirmed the wind in the sails of the right which focuses precisely on fears for the implementation of the Green deal and the increase in immigrants. It will be up to the popular people to decide which side and who to side with. In Sweden as in Finland it has already happened. Now it’s Spain’s turn. Feijóo cautiously avoids revealing himself. However, he is keen to let it be known that he would be in favor of opening the doors of the EPP to the Italian premier: “It will depend on Mrs. Meloni’s attitude, but I am convinced, from what my friend Antonio Tajani tells me, that Meloni’s positions worry us much less today than when she was elected to government”.