Employment, the alarm from the CGIL: “In 20 years we will have 6.9 million fewer people of working age”

In 2043, the working-age population (15-64 years) will be 6.9 million fewer people than today, and the number of elderly people will rise by 4.8 million. To “at least partially” counter this phenomenon, the current migratory balance should increase by at least +150,000 people a year.
It emerges from the latest research carried out by the Di Vittorio Foundation of the CGIL, “Italy between demographic, employment and migration issues”. “An unsustainable decline – warns the president of the Fdv, Fulvio Fammoni – which if not contrasted with immediate interventions would envisage a future of decline which we cannot resign ourselves to”.

The decrease in the population is a well-established phenomenon with obvious repercussions also on the labor market, underlines the research of the Di Vittorio Foundation of the CGIL. Probabilistic forecasts in twenty years (2043) indicate a reduction in the resident population of over 3 million compared to today, as a result of a decrease in younger people (-903 thousand) and people of working age (-6.9 million ) and an increase in the elderly (+4.8 million).

All of this, the analysis continues, while the mechanism that feeds population growth «has stopped: the natural balance is negative, while the migratory balance is positive, but completely insufficient to compensate for the natural one. An additional contribution to the migratory balance of 150,000 people a year would make it possible to mitigate the decrease in the total population in twenty years and would reduce the expected decline in the active population”. «There isn’t a single lever – underlines Fammoni – but several factors that cannot be contrasted with each other on which to intervene. In fact, the research proposes data and ideas for possible interventions to acceptably reduce the decline in the population of working age, extending rights and opportunities to all and guaranteeing the country the possibility of economic and social development”.

“It is necessary to get out of the logic of propaganda and start a series of measures and investments aimed at the recovery of the birth rate, the support of female employment and the legal entry of migrants into our country, policies that absolutely must not be opposed” he says the confederal secretary of the CGIL, Tania Scacchetti, commenting on the research of the Di Vittorio Foundation, “Italy between demographic, employment and migration issues”. According to Scacchetti, «on the one hand, that of the labor market, it is necessary to counter precarious, poorly protected, poorly paid work, to provide for investments aimed at extraordinary plans for employment and at supporting and relaunching welfare. On the other hand, that of immigration, the phenomenon must be taken on with the aim of governing it and considering it an opportunity, thus overcoming the emergency, punitive and repelling logic of the decrees of recent months, and introducing a job search permit lasting one year to facilitate legal entry”.