Emilia-Romagna, GDP growing (+4%) and entrepreneurs’ confidence

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Despite inflation destined to remain above 6% again this year, with depressive effects on domestic consumption, the confidence of Emilia-Romagna industrialists not only remains high, but improves compared to the 2022 climate: production is expected to grow from 35% of entrepreneurs, with an optimistic/pessimistic balance reaching 23 points, ten points above the mid-2022 balance, orders are on the rise for 36% of companies (with an optimistic/pessimistic balance of 21.4 points, against 4.8 a year ago) with sharply rising expectations for both exports and employment.

«Our region knows how to interact with the large economic areas of the planet, exports and investments are the pillars on which our competitiveness is based and being linked to the USA, our main outlet market since last year, is a further strength» . This is how Annalisa Sassi, president of Confindustria Emilia-Romagna, comments on the results of the economic survey presented in Bologna together with the regional directorates of Unioncamere and Intesa Sanpaolo.

The data at the end of 2022 are decidedly good (+4% GDP on the Via Emilia, almost 3 points above pre-Covid levels) doped by the construction boom and by inflation, translated by companies into price lists: +5.8 % of manufacturing production translates into a more than double increase in turnover and exports grow by 16.9% in the first nine months of the year, against a minimal increase in volume (+1.2%).

However, the industrial sector must prepare for a downsizing in 2023 – warns Guido Caselli, director of the Unioncamere study center, observing the entire regional production fabric – and this will have a stronger impact here than in the rest of Italy, because in Emilia- Romagna industry represents 28% of the added value, against 19% of the national figure. In short, the region will have to settle for GDP growth of around +0.5% in 2023 (Prometeia estimate) and will have to wait for 2024 to recover the pre-pandemic levels of employment and household consumption (while investments are already 23 points above the 2019 figure just as exports are almost 12 points above).

The liveliness of companies, but only the largest, is confirmed by the data from Intesa Sanpaolo: «Loans to the production system continue to grow in the region (+1.5%), while they decrease in Italy (-1.5%) and they are driven precisely by larger companies, while they are decreasing for small companies», explains Alessandra Florio, regional director of Intesa Sanpaolo.