Elections 2022, for the first time since 1948 represented less than half of the population- Corriere.it

For the first time in Italy since 1948, less than half of the national population represented in Parliament. A record, that of the lowest electoral base, depended on the high rate of abstention in the latest policies: 36.6%. As Marco Valbruzzi, professor of Political Science at the Federico II University of Naples, points out, if we take into account all citizens, and not just voters, the set of parties in fact represents 47.7% of Italians. The rest are abstainers (28.5%, lower figure because it is calculated on a different basis), minors (21.6%) and those who cast a null or white vote (2.2%). Usually the results are commented on by reasoning about the percentages of valid votes and rarely the share of non-voters is taken into consideration, explains Valbruzzi, but a figure that the next government must or should take into account. When we talk about valid votes we are talking about 5.3 million for the Pd (19%), 4.4 for the M5S (15.4%), 2.5 for the League (8.8%), 2.3 (7.8%) for Share-IV, 7.3 for Fratelli d’Italia (26%). Everything changes by expanding the calculation. In this way, the center-right (Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia) reaches 16.9% and the League at 4.2%. As well as the M5S reaches 7.4%, the Action-IV center 3.8% and the Pd 10.9%.

The next center-right government, writes Valbruzzi, it will therefore be the expression of a Parliament that was elected, unprecedented in Italy, by a minority of the Italian population (43.8%), in turn the expression of a coalition of relative majority among the voters (1/4) and not of the population (1/5). In fact, taking into consideration the electorate alone (minors are not considered but abstentionists), the winning center-right coalition now represents just over a quarter of the Italian vote (26.6%). The center-right understood as Forza Italia and Lega reaches 21.3%, the Lega at 5.3%. As for the center-left, the Democratic Party gets 14% and the M5S 9.4%, while Action-Iv has 4.8 %%.