E-fuels: because at the moment they cost between 2 and 3 euros per litre

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They could be used right away. If there were. But the road to the use of e-fuels is not only long, it’s also an uphill one. First of all due to the lack of hydrogen, which is a fundamental element, and then due to the need to build renewable energy plants. In both cases, Germany has already moved forward: at the beginning of the year it signed an agreement with Norway for the large-scale supply of hydrogen and a feasibility plan has already been commissioned which should be ready in spring. The agreement provides for strengthening cooperation between the two countries in various sectors, including renewable sources (offshore wind), CO2 capture and storage with CCS (Carbon capture and storage) technologies, supplies of raw materials for batteries, fuel alternatives for ships. What we talk about these days. It’s Italy? At the end of November 2020, our country published the “Preliminary guidelines for a national strategy on hydrogen”, understood above all as green hydrogen produced from electric renewable sources, without completely excluding the blue option but a strategic document is still awaited more advanced.

Green hydrogen

The report edited by Rie (Industrial and Energy Research) and Unem (Union of Energies for Mobility) published a couple of months ago talks about it at length: «Among the objectives outlined for 2030 – reads the report – is that of obtaining a penetration of ‘green hydrogen of 2% of the final energy demand, through 5 Gw of electrolysers and 10 billion euros of investments (net of those of the RES to feed the electrolysers, essential for the production of e-fuels ed). In the longer term, ie towards 2050, the document considers that hydrogen can cover up to 20% of the final energy demand, but we are more in the field of hopes than planning». And it is by no means certain that we will arrive at having (and not only in Italy) the raw material necessary to produce the quantity of e-fuels necessary to respond to market needs.

Even more complex is the question concerning the production of e-fuels which is still in an experimental phase today: “The transition from the current pilot-demonstration phase to plants capable of activating production on a commercial scale realistically takes more than a decade – we read again in the Rie-Unem relationship – as connected to the implementation of huge investments aimed at building a new value chain (electrolysers, carbon dioxide capture, storage and use systems, conversion plants). We also need a very strong increase in the electricity generation capacity from renewable sources, in consideration of the intrinsic conversion inefficiency that characterizes this kind of production”.

Costs too high

Widespread penetration is therefore not conceivable by 2035, also due to the very high costs. Need more time. «Over a longer term horizon (2040-2050) e-fuels could attack the entire market for liquid and gaseous fuels used in the transport sector. Their high penetration in the long term depends on the investments that can be made in the current decade – continues the Rie-Unem report -. Studies on the subject agree that the main cost items concern the generation capacity from renewables, the electrolysers and the method used to capture CO2».

Investments in plants

Another issue is then that of the construction costs of the plants. In Italy, a pilot plant for the production of e-methanol starting from green hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide is under construction, while a research project has been launched for a pilot plant dedicated to the production of e-fuels. Overall, an investment of around 340 million is expected for these two projects, with a construction time of 4 years. To stay within the cost range of industrial-scale plants, according to Concawe, a new plant of this type with a capacity of 0.2 million tons of oil equivalent per year could result in an investment expenditure of between 400 and 650 million. “The development of economies of scale and learning is indicated as the main lever of cost reduction, although there is consensus on its achievement in a long-term horizon such as 2040-2050”.