Def, Bank of Italy: “Economic picture more favorable than expected, return to modest growth in the first quarter”
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MILAN – The health of the Italian economy is better than previous forecasts. This is what it highlights Bank of Italy in his hearing on def. “The short-term picture” of the Italian economy “appears slightly more favorable than that underlying our latest projections published in January” (GDP of 0.6% in the current year) and the forecasts presented in the Def “although at the top of the range of available estimates,” are overall “consistent” with the situation, said the head of the Bank of Italy’s Economics and Statistics department, Sergio Nicoletti Altimari.
Def, Cgil Cisl and Uil are not there. Insufficient resources on wages and pensions
by Maria Sole Betti
In particular, Bank of Italy estimates a return to “albeit modest” growth in the first quarter. “Encouraging signs – explained Altimari – come from the trend in household and business confidence and from the increase in the purchasing managers’ indices, which are back in all sectors above the threshold which corresponds to an expansion of activity. In the surveys conducted by the Bank of Italy between February and March, the assessments of companies on the general economic situation improved further, supported by favorable assessments on the evolution of demand and by the easing of the difficulties associated with energy costs and the availability of raw materials and intermediate inputs. Industrial production, after declining in the second half of 2022, is expected to have increased slightly on average for the first three months of the year. Employment also continued to expand in the same period”. Therefore, observed the representative of Bank of Italy, “we estimate that these trends may have already translated in the first quarter of the year into a return to product growth, albeit modest”.
From cutting the wedge 200 euros of benefits on average
In its speech, Bankitalia also focused on the over 3 billion intended to strengthen the cut in the tax wedge. According to Via Nazionale, they would allow “an increase in disposable income of just under 200 euros per year on average”. “Under the assumptions that the application thresholds already in force remain unchanged and the new reliefs start from next May, the over 3 billion intended to strengthen this measure should allow for a doubling of the monthly amount of the exemption”, according to the model of micro-simulation of the Bank of Italy
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