Def, 3 billion available. GDP estimates revised upwards: +1% – Corriere.it

A slightly better growth than expected a few months ago, with gross domestic product than this year go up 1%against the 0.6% target set in the Note update to last November’s Def. A small increase in an international framework that remains uncertain and which induces the government to cut the GDP estimate for 2024 by half a point: + 1.4% instead of the + 1.9% envisaged in the NaDef. Budgetary policy will remain inspired by criteria of prudence and the margins for maneuver indicated in the Economic and Financial Document for 2023, which will be approved today by the Council of Ministers, will be very limited.

Resources in 2023

In particular this year: no more than 3 billion to usethey explain to the Ministry of Economy led by Giancarlo Giorgetti, for a single measure, be it against high bills, if there is still a need, or to give a signal on the decline in public debt, which remains the front on which Italy is most exposed on the markets and in the EU grappling with the reform of the stability pact, where Germany and other countries are pushing to restore strict budgetary rules after the pandemic, demanding that high-debt countries, such as Italy, reduce the incidence of the same on the GDP of at least one percentage point per year. The approximately three billion will come from a deficit target that the Def indicates for 2023 at 4.5% of GDP, like the previous NaDef, compared to a trend, ie with current legislation, of 4.35%. This is precisely 0.15 percentage points of GDP, i.e. just under three billion, of deficit more, after the more than twenty already used by the government with the Stability law for 2023.

Narrow path

A narrow path, therefore, for budgetary policieswhich will remain so also in 2024. Yesterday we worked until late evening at the Ministry of the Economy, but the exact numbers will be defined tomorrow (Tuesday 11 April). The margins for the next budget law will in any case be limited. The programmatic deficit will be defined at the last moment. It will be above 3%, but below 3.7% of the NaDef. A fact that contrasts with the large spaces that would instead be necessary for the executive to implement its ambitious program. Just think of the tax reform, which should start next year and where several billions are needed to finance the reduction of personal income tax. If these resources will not be available in the budget, coverage will have to be found in the context of the reform itself (for example with the cut in tax expenditure), with the risk of scaling back, at least initially, the intentions of a sharp cut in the tax burden. A similar argument can be made on the pension chapter. Quota 103 expires at the end of the year, which allows you to leave your job with 41 years of contributions and 62 years of age. The government has promised a reform to introduce elements of flexibility in the retirement age and the League pushes for Quota 41, i.e. the possibility of retiring with 41 years of service regardless of age, but 4 billion would be needed only in the first year. In the absence of resources, the government could then resort to the simple extension of Quota 103 which would cost little, postponing the reform.

Debt down

The Def will confirm the reduction of debt in relation to GDP. November’s NaDef predicted 145.7% of GDP in 2022, 144.6% this year, 142.3% in 2024 and 141.2% in 2025. But the Bank of Italy, a few days ago , certified that in 2022 the debt, thanks to the good performance of the GDP, fell to 144.4%, therefore already below the target set for 2023. Now the Def, thanks to last year’s good result, will estimate a performance slightly better than debt, which will fall to 140.9% of GDP in 2025.