Confindustria, the risk of stagnation is growing: consumption is slowing down, industry and construction suffer

ROME. The risk of stagnation for the Italian economy is increasing: at the end of the year, industry is in decline, construction has stopped driving, only services hold. Inflation at its highest and persistent levels will curb consumption, which has so far been supported by accumulated extra savings, while the rise in interest rates will discourage investment and “ballast” corporate balance sheets. This is what the Confindustria Study Center indicates, highlighting, among other things, how the uncertainty on the prospects and the high energy price weigh heavily, which could absorb further extra savings, reducing the impulse on consumption and “accelerating” stagnation .

The collapse in consumption since 2020, forced by the anti-Covid restrictions, has generated an “unprecedented” increase in household savings. Between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2022, an amount of excess savings accumulated in Italy of approximately 126 billion euros (7% of GDP) is calculated. The amount of these resources is in line with the Eurozone average (7.3%, 900 billion), but lower than that recorded in the USA, where it reached 12% of GDP, also favored by very generous pandemic support .

However, the resources that will be able to fuel consumption are, in fact, much smaller and for three reasons, explains the CSC: they are distributed unequally, mostly accumulated by high-income families; they have been partly invested and are being eroded by inflation (+11.8% in November). Overall, a loss of purchasing power of around 13 billion euros is estimated with respect to the total extra savings. So, how much is left for groceries? Taking into account the various factors, the part of the extra savings that can actually be spent, indicates the CSC, can be estimated at around 13 billion (just over 10%).