Confcommercio: recessionary cycle triggered, January GDP -0.9%
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“The slowdown in household demand should have triggered a recessionary cycle of reduced duration and intensity”. This is what the Confcommercio research office says, which estimates for January a GDP “down by 0.9% in economic terms, with a growth of 0.4% on January 2022, laying the foundations for a recessionary first quarter”.
Inflation
As for inflation, in January consumer prices should register an increase of 0.6% over December, bringing the trend rate to 10.5% (from 11.6% in December). But for Confcommercio it is “difficult to hypothesize an average price growth in 2023 below 6%”, as a legacy of 2022, the inflation acquired for 2023 was equal to 5.1%.
According to Confcommercio, the phase of “contradiction” between the evidence emerging from the economic indicators continues. «A strong recovery of confidence is contrasted by the zeroing out of consumption growth in the last quarter of 2022. Production and employment are expected to decrease between last November and the current month of January, yet very favorable signs are seen on the side of inflation, very high but probably significantly reduced in the next few months».
Demand trend
«Despite the erosion of the purchasing power of current incomes and liquid wealth, only partially offset by public support, the attitude of households remains positive and there are no radical changes in purchasing behaviour. Therefore, at least in the short term, drastic and generalized reductions in demand are to be excluded».
Conjuncture
In November, industrial production confirmed the slowdown trend, «a trend that would last until the first months of 2023, according to the indications of entrepreneurs». According to data from Confcommercio, the labor market showed substantial resistance in November with a slight reduction in the number of employed people (-0.1% on October equal to -27 thousand units). In the same month, consumption, expressed in the ICC metric (the Confcommercio Consumption indicator, ed), confirmed the trend towards less dynamism, with growth of 0.4% on an annual basis. The data is the synthesis of a drop in demand for goods (-0.2%) and a growth for services (+2.7%). In 2022 as a whole, the CCI recorded a growth of 4.2%, a synthesis of a more accentuated recovery of services (+15.5% on 2021) and a moderate growth in the demand for goods (+0.4%) . Despite this very positive trend, consumption levels remain far from the overall values of 2019 (-4.1%). Services are confirmed as lagging behind (-11.2%), as are the automotive segment (-23.8%) and clothing and footwear (-6.6%).
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