Commerce, 480,000 workers missing – Il Sole 24 ORE
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«Commerce, tourism, services, transport are sectors that contribute significantly to the achievement of balanced, sustainable and inclusive development for the benefit of a more cohesive society and of present and future generations. These are sectors of economic life that contribute to the progress of the Republic”. With these words, the head of state Sergio Mattarella opened the annual meeting of Confcommercio, highlighting how “the synergy between companies, national and European institutions has been able to counteract the recessive effects caused by the health pandemic and the consequences of the aggression of the Russian Federation against of Ukraine”.
In his report Carlo Sangalli, president of Confcommercio, expressed his condolences for the victims of the flood that hit Romagna. We acknowledge the Government for having responded promptly. The moratoriums are territorially inclusive, the refreshments are adequate and also take into account the loss of revenue regardless of the direct damage, he adds. We too want to do our part. I am thinking of the Protocol with the Civil Protection, of the resources put in place by our Orlando Foundation, of the initiatives dedicated to internal areas and to the mountains, because emergencies are always faced upstream”.
Taxation, employment and consumption
As regards the sector, the President recalled how «the tertiary market is experiencing a persistent shortage of personnel. “In tourism and commerce, for example, compared to 2022, around 480,000 workers are missing. And for more than 40%, there is a real risk that demand cannot be met, mainly due to a lack of skills. It is therefore necessary to intervene to bridge the gap between training and the needs of businesses, as well as to plan adequate flows of immigrant workers”. On the tax burden, Sangalli calls for «a reform aimed at supporting growth through the reduction of the tax burden, the fight against evasion and avoidance, the simplification of obligations, the certainty of the law. Therefore, a complex work site is opening up and discussions with the social partners must continue, but the tax system must be consistent with European and international rules. In this context, the web tax itself must be considered. And here we do not understand why a small trader has to pay taxes, all of them and immediately, while this does not happen for the large global platforms!». The same principle should apply to short-term rentals. «Rules are needed to unambiguously define tourist activities and information tools for the emergence of submerged tourism. For short-term rentals, the principle always applies: same market, same rules» underlines the president of Confcommercio regarding the bill on short-term rentals being studied by the Government. “Cities and territories, in fact,” he adds, “are shaped by our economic activities, from commerce on public areas to restaurants, from historic shops to cultural enterprises.”
On the issue of consumption with the constant drop in volumes, the Chairman recalls how «In the scenario of permacrisis, the results of the Italian economy have consistently beaten all forecasts upwards over the last three years. Today, our GDP level is 2.5% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019. In short, we have more than recovered pre-pandemic levels, outperforming other major European economies and even the United States. However, consumption still lags behind which, on average last year, is around twenty billion euros lower than in 2019. It is precisely consumption that is slowing down, starting with food, due to that inflation which – underlines Sangalli – continues to bite. Inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of both current income and wealth held in liquid form. We have shown an extraordinary ability to adapt and react, on the part of business, work and social safety nets. It is the result of the collaboration between good public policies and private initiative. Collaboration that has also worked on the employment front».
Forecasts: the North-South gap is growing
«2023 remains a year of transition for the Italian economy between the phase of exceptional post-pandemic recovery and an uncertain and complex future, in which economic growth is still to be built. On the basis of the most recent data, international institutions have raised their final forecasts: for Italy, up to 1.2%, according to the European Commission, with similar prospects for next year». These are the forecasts of the Confcommercio Research Office, which estimates a GDP of +1.2% in 2023 and a slight improvement for 2024 at +1.3%, released on the occasion of the general assembly of the confederation (based on Istat data) . In addition to the growth data, Confcommercio forecasts a slight increase in consumption for 2023 to +1% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. For inflation, growth of 5.9% is estimated in 2023 and a drop to + 2.3% in 2024. The slowdown in GDP – reports Confcommercio – is the reflection of the slowdown in consumption, despite the strong driving force of tourism. The savings that supported consumption also during 2022, in the absence of particular stimuli from income from capital and labour, decreased in terms of purchasing power. A future that is more difficult to decipher, compared to “normal” times, could require the stock of financial wealth to be reconstituted at least in part. At the regional level, the North-South gaps are widening, in 2023, in fact, the GDP of the South will grow almost three times less than in the North (+0.5% against +1.4%). Lombardy with a growth of 1.7% is the region with the best performance, in last place Calabria and Sardinia with zero growth. Similar dynamics also for consumption in 2023 with the South at +0.4% and the North at +1.2%. Population decline is the most worrying. In 2023, the Italian population decreased by almost 1 million people compared to 2019, of which more than half in the South alone. In the long term, between 1995 and 2023, only this area lost residents (over 900 thousand) and Molise, Calabria and Basilicata are the Regions with the greatest percentage drops (between 11 and 12%).
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