Censis-Confcommercio Report: «Confidence at its peak, but uncertainty is holding back consumption»

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It is common knowledge that economics is not an exact science. But what makes the work of economists, their forecasts and their analyzes more complex than ever, is the uncertainty of the times we are living in, which create contradictory phenomena that are difficult to read and in some ways worrying. Like the figure that emerges from the Confcommercio-Censis annual report on household confidence and consumption – two macroeconomic indices that tend to operate in a relationship of direct proportionality: as the former increases, the latter should also increase.

But no, warns the report: the confidence of Italians is at an all-time high, yet purchase intentions in 2023 are lower not only compared to 2022, but even compared to 2019. “A dangerous contradiction”, observes Mariano Bella, director of the Confcommercio study centre. The reason for this dynamic is twofold: “Families admit that things could have been worse than they are, and therefore breathe a sigh of relief – explains Bella -: employment is at its peak, public support has worked in the recovery since the pandemic, consumption, thanks to tourism, entertainment and culture, has attracted and given satisfaction”.

The inflation knot

At the same time, however, there is a perception that “inflation hasn’t been tamed and public aid is shrinking,” adds Bella. Furthermore, the purchasing power of incomes and savings are declining, so Italians «feel the need to save, to protect themselves in case things don’t improve quickly, to cope with the context of uncertainty. Greater savings mean fewer spending prospects and intentions.

Without rapid interventions, the risk is to slow down the recovery, comments the president of Confcommercio Carlo Sangalli: “It is essential to speed up the reforms, in particular the fiscal one, and make the best use of the resources of the Pnrr”, he says.

Income lower than 1995 in real terms

«In 2022, at constant prices, we did not recover either the per capita disposable income of 2019, let alone that of 2007, which is the maximum. We are even 150 euros down in real terms compared to 1995, that is almost thirty years ago», says Mariano Bella. Thirty years of low growth “are reflected in our pockets and in the themes of social unease and the growth of absolute poverty”, he adds. Linked to the issue of job security, the impoverishment of real income also determines “an attitude of scarce propensity to have children.