Cars, for zero emissions it will take at least 50 years. Electric alone is not enough

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The green transition in the mobility and transport sector will take at least fifty years and electric technology alone is not enough. We need other technologies in the field, starting with biofuels. This is what emerges from the study by Aspen Institute Italia, carried out in collaboration with Shell, of which Il Sole 24 Ore publishes a preview – the full version is available on www.aspeninstitute.it.

The study raises a question and starts from an assumption. The key question is whether the current crisis – war in Ukraine, raw material price dynamics, energy issue – will lead to an acceleration in energy transitions or if the combination of economic turmoil and conflicting political choices, in the short term, can slow down the process . The assumption from which the study starts instead concerns the fact that the mobility sector represents one of the sectors with the greatest impact on a global scale in terms of emissions, after energy and industry.

The automotive sector and mobility, in particular, are focusing on electricity to reduce emissions, on the impetus of what is set by the European regulation on engines, which ends in 2035. But the new energy sources for mobility, underlines Aspen “will also include fuels synthetics such as electrofuels (e-fuel) and biofuels (biofuel)». These technologies, analysts believe, “could play a fundamental role in the short to medium term, especially after the repeal of the ban on the sale, by Europe, of cars with internal combustion engines starting from 2035”.

Added to this is hydrogen, a technological perspective supported by Europe thanks to the Ipcei projects. Biofuels, in particular, present “excellent opportunities for the decarbonisation of the transport sector, especially the latest generation ones”. Obtained from renewable sources such as plants, algae and organic waste, they contribute to closing the product cycle and with significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions than traditional fossil fuels. E-fuels present some more difficulties, the production of which could remain limited in Europe to 2035, capable of powering only 2% of the cars on the road: “this could make this option uncompetitive from an economic point of view”.

Biofuels transition technology

The “transit” technology on which to focus would therefore be biofuels, strenuously defended by the Italian Government in Brussels: «Considering the current situation of the logistics infrastructures – and the preference of Italians for internal combustion cars – it is reasonable to assume that the transition towards non-polluting electric vehicles will take some time. As the development of hydrogen engines is still in its infancy, and the large-scale production of e-fuels at competitive prices is still a challenge, biofuels could play a significant role in reducing emissions. A non-secondary step in light of the fact that in 2022 the total average global emissions of CO2 during were among the highest ever recorded.