Btp, rising spread? Goldman Sachs is pessimistic about Italian stocks – Corriere.it

Are we announcing a new hot summer for Italian BTPs? At the moment there are no signs of it and on 24 May, at the end of the session, the yield differential between the BTPs and the German Bunds starts to close almost unchanged compared to the previous sessions, around 185, with a yield of about 4 .35%. However, research by the American investment bank Goldman Sachs hypothesizes that the scenario could change over the next few months and, according to the American bank, it is possible that the Btp Bund yield differential could rise to 235 basis points by the end of 2023. A value already reached last October and followed by a slow decline over the following months.

The causes

For the US bank, in fact, it is unlikely that the favorable situation that has supported sovereign credit and in particular that of Italy will strengthen. Goldman Sachs expects it to increase control over Italy’s implementation of the Recovery Fund which could start to weigh on our country’s growth expectations. Furthermore, BTPs could be put under pressure by the acceleration of quantitative tightening in June — i.e. the slowdown in the pace of purchases of maturing Italian (and other) government bonds by the ECB, as well as further rate hikes by the ECB.

Indication: Buy Bonos

Hence the suggestion to focus on the bonoos, Madrid government bonds, which could benefit from the outperformance of Spain, thanks to better growth prospects, as well as solid progress with respect to funding targets. Goldman Sachs’ suggestion to go short on BTPs – that is to say liquidate one’s positions on Italian BTPs, in order to purchase Spanish public debt issues.