Brothers of Italy slow down the race, M5S above 18%, Pd stopped | Political polls

For the first time, the month of January marks a decline in approval for the work of the government and the prime minister: the positive votes, while continuing to prevail, register a drop of three points compared to the month of December, the negative ones increase respectively by two and five points. The approval rating (as always calculated by comparing the positive judgments with the negative ones, excluding those who do not express themselves), stands at 51 for the executive (-3) and at 53 for Giorgia Meloni (-5), returning on the values ​​at the start of the mandate.

It would be rash to argue that this is the end of the “honeymoon”

, given that the appreciation for the premier is expressed by 46% of Italians, ie a much higher share than the voters of the majority parties who on 25 September represented 26.7% of all voters. Rather it is a setback, which several previous governments stumbled upon well before the end of the honeymoon, a sort of “rebound” after the increase in expectations linked to the novelties of the new political scenario. There are many issues that may have influenced citizens’ assessments, starting with the increase in fuel prices, also following the failure to extend the excise cut. In fact, it should be remembered that at the time the new executive took office, the main priority of the Italians was represented by the expensive bills and the price of fuel. Today, 64% say they are dissatisfied with how the government has handled the issue. But there are other issues on the agenda that are causing perplexity in some citizens, and some tension between the majority parties, among others differentiated autonomy, telephone interceptions, the possible presidential reform of the state, etc.

All this is also reflected in the voting guidelines given that, after the strong growth of recent months, the Brothers of Italy, while largely confirming the first party with 30.5%, recorded a decline (-1.2) against a recovery of the League which reached 8 .3% (+0.5%) and is approaching the result of the policies, and of Forza Italia which rises to 6.8% (+0.6%). In the field of opposition, the M5S consolidates its second place reaching 18.2% (+0.6%), a result that had not been achieved since the autumn of 2020. Followed by the Pd which, following the pre-congress debate, seems having halted the negative trend of the last few months settling at 16.4%, therefore the third pole with 7.1% and the Alleanza Verdi, Sinistra Italiana and Reti civiche with 4.1%. The area of ​​abstention and indecision increased by two points, affecting more than two out of five Italians (41.2%).

Overall the centre-right maintains a large advantage over the centre-left (46.6% to 22.5%) which is even higher than the one that came out of the polls last September (43.8% to 26.1%), going from about 18 points to more of 24.

Finally, the appreciation of the party leaders: no significant changes compared to the previous month, since we recorded deviations of only one point. However, if we analyze the medium-term trend, it is interesting to observe that Conte, with an approval rating of 32, returns to the values ​​prior to the opening of the Draghi government crisis; Salvini (28) and Lupi (21) register growth of 4 points compared to the end of July, as well as Berlusconi (25) from October onwards. On the contrary, Letta (18) falls by 4 points compared to October and by as much as 11 compared to July, while Calenda (21), stable in recent months, has dropped by 4 points compared to the data for July, when the alliance with the Democratic Party and part of the dem consensus was alienated.

The regional elections in Lombardy and Lazio are upon us. Although it is an administrative vote guided by local logic, the electoral appointment will be invested with national meanings, according to an all-Italian custom. The electoral round, in fact, could have consequences on relations between the majority parties, given that any increase in Fdi to the detriment of the allies could lead to tensions that would have repercussions on government action. Similarly, the regional elections will be a testing ground for the opposition parties, taking into account the competition between them and the decision to form “variable geometry” alliances: in fact, in Lombardy the Pd and M5s are allies supporting the candidacy of Pierfrancesco Majorino, while the Third Pole has Letizia Moratti as a candidate, and in Lazio Pd and Third Pole support the regional councilor for health Alessio D’Amato while the pentastellati have nominated the Rai journalist Donatella Bianchi. And after the regionals, the congress of the Democratic Party will be held, which will elect the new secretary. In short, a very eventful February awaits us.