Bank of Italy revises growth upwards in 2023: +1.3%: unemployment down – Corriere.it

The Bank of Italy is revising the GDP upwards for 2023 which should rise by 1.3% against the +0.6% estimated in January. For 2024, GDP would rise by only 1% (it was 1.2% in the January estimate) and by 1.1% in 2025. In the report, the Bank underlines the high uncertainty that still affects all estimates. Household consumption, after the fall recorded at the end of last year, is expected to expand to a limited extent over the three-year forecast period, at a rate similar to that of GDP, according to the report. Investments would slow down markedly, held back in the private sector by the rise in financing costs and by stricter conditions for accessing credit; on the other hand, the impetus deriving from the public component would increase, thanks to the interventions of the Pnrr. Spending on residential construction – he adds – is expected to increase further in the current year, benefiting from some residual support measures for the sector, to then stagnate in the following two years. Exports are expected to expand at low rates over the three-year period, in line with the trend in foreign demand. Imports would grow to a lesser extent, due to the weakness of demand for investments in capital goods, characterized by a high content of imported products. Finally, the contribution to GDP growth attributable to net foreign demand should remain positive over the three-year forecast period.

Falling unemployment

The unemployment rate is seen to fall to 7.7% in 2023 and close to 7.5% in 2025. This was stated by the Bank of Italy in its Macroeconomic projections for the Italian economy. In particular, Via Nazionale revises its unemployment estimate for 2023 downwards from 8.2% in January to 7.7%. For 2024, the rate is still seen at 7.7% and therefore at 7.6% in 2025. In the labor market – it is stated – the number of hours worked, which increased significantly in the first quarter, would continue to grow in the rest of the three-year period 2023-25 ​​at a rate lower than that of the product; the number of employed people would increase to a lesser extent. The unemployment rate is projected to decline slightly to close to 7.5 per cent in 2025.

Inflation at 6.1%

Bankitalia estimates that consumer price inflation will stand at 6.1% on average in 2023 and then decrease to 2.3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. This is stated by Bankitalia in its forecasts for the Italian economy in the three-year period 2023- 2025 adding that the decline would mainly reflect the net reduction of the contribution of the more volatile components, connected with the reduction in the prices of raw materials. Core inflation is expected to remain high this year, to decrease over the next two years, consistently with a gradual transmission of lower energy costs. Compared to the forecasts published in January, inflation was revised downwards in 2023 and 2024 by around 0.3 percentage points, mainly due to the faster decline in energy prices than assumed at the time