Bank of Italy, companies see the crisis: “Pessimism increases, inflation remains high”

After the alarm from Confindustria, according to which 2022 presents a shock energy account to companies of 110 billion more than the pre-crisis values, also the investigation of the Bank of Italy notes the worsening of the picture largely due to the extra costs for electricity and gas.

Via Nazionale tested the places for Italian companies between 25 August and 15 September and painted a gloomy picture of them: they are increasingly pessimistic about the economic situation due to “the uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors and the trend of raw material prices “. According to the survey “for almost a third of companies, the difficulties related to the cost of energy were greater than in the previous quarter”.

The problem is that the economic slowdown general begins to be felt. Confindustria sees zero growth in 2023, some rating agencies also hypothesize the “minus” sign. For Bank of Italy, DG Luigi Signorini explained at an Ania conference, there is a significant reduction in the 2023 estimates (arriving on 13 October) but still positive, it being understood that in the adverse scenario of “a prolonged impact of the war on prices and energy supplies “and on” world trade “, on the other hand, there will be a negative slide. Reasons that weigh among companies: “The impulse in demand, which had supported activity in the last few quarters, has faded and the expectations of companies do not foreshadow a recovery in the coming months”. A moderate downward revision of investment plans for 2022 was also reported.

L’inflation it is public enemy number one, even among entrepreneurs. And Italian companies expect a strengthening of inflation which will also last in the coming years. Palazzo Koch asked for impressions from industrial and service companies with at least 50 employees, and in the third quarter “expectations on consumer inflation increased further, exceeding 6% over 12 months and settling on values ​​around 5 % even on the most distant horizons (2 years and 3-5 years). “The dynamics of prices charged by companies has also strengthened and will remain strong over the next 12 months, driven by higher production input prices and higher expectations for inflation”.

For the moment, the job is in tight suit. “The outlook for employment in the fourth quarter remains generally favorable,” the survey reports. “The share of companies in industry in the strict sense and in services that plan to expand the number of employees was 5.6 percentage points higher than that of those who expect a reduction, a smaller gap than in the previous survey (15 , 7) “. “The expectations – underlines the survey by Via Nazionale – are more favorable in the construction sector, where the balance increased slightly to 11.7 percentage points (10.8)”.