World Bank, Jordan: if an algorithm decides which citizens need financial support and which don’t

ROME – The file of Human Rights Watch“Automated Neglect: How the World Bank’s Push to Allocate Cash Assistance Using Algorithms Threatens Rights”, details how the automated financial aid program, known as Takaful, which in Jordan serves to identify the neediest people so that they can receive help from the government. This kind of program, which the World Bank has also financed in seven other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, however, it risks depriving many of the right to obtain a subsidy just because their requirements do not correspond to those recognized by the algorithm.

The World Bank. The World Bank belongs to 184 member countries whose interests are represented by: 1) the Board of Governors 2) the Board of Directors. The institutions to which it belongs are: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; the International Development Association; the International Finance Corporation; the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency and the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes. According to a rule that has established itself over time, although it has never been codified, the director of the International Monetary Fund is designated by the European governments, while the president of the World Bank is appointed by the government of the United States of America, which represent the most major shareholder of the Bank itself.

The system. Jordan’s National Aid Fund (NAF), the social protection agency that administers Takaful, first assesses whether applicants meet the program’s basic eligibility criteria. Once admitted, the NAF leverages an algorithm that uses 57 socio-economic indicators to estimate their income and wealth, ranking them from least to poorest. Money transfers are only given to those most in need. Each of the 57 indicators is assigned a specific weight, but the agency explains that none of them, alone, can exclude a person from the possibility of accessing the Takaful. However, from the interviews conducted by Human Rights Watch it emerged that households who own a car that is less than five years old were excluded from the benefit despite poor economic conditions. In the same way, some companies in difficulty have been cut off from support, but they have a value of more than three thousand dinars, or about 4,200 dollars.

What is not working? Human Rights Watch’s criticism is substantial, because these indicators cannot fully capture the complexity of people’s lives. Furthermore, such a system fuels social tensions and the perception of widespread inequality. The Jordanian government should establish a universal social protection system, which guarantees that everyone can get help in the most difficult moments of their lives.

The witness. A resident of al-Burbaita in Tafilah, one of the country’s poorest villages, is convinced that the family car played a crucial role in the government’s decision to deny her support. “The car destroyed us,” she said. “We use it to transport water and for other needs. But sometimes we don’t even have the money to put in petrol”. The NAF clarified that owning old cars doesn’t preclude anyone from getting the help, but acknowledged that it affects the algorithm’s ranking. The owner of a small tailor shop in Al-Balad, in the historic center of Amman, believes that his business is one of the possible reasons why he has not received the subsidy, even though the losses accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic have forced him to contract a debt of 12,000 Jordanian dinars (about 16,900 dollars) to pay for electricity, rent and other basic needs.

Energy and poverty. Similarly, families that consume more water and electricity may be less likely to access Takaful, according to an indicator that analyzes the characteristics of the home. Almost all those interviewed excluded from the support said they spend more on electricity than the national average and the government itself has admitted that those living in poverty cannot afford energy-efficient and low-cost appliances such as solar water heaters. So the poorest are forced to pay more and risk not being able to receive any contributions.

family discrimination. The indicator that assigns a higher score to large families and therefore facilitates access to Takaful could discriminate – HRW denounces – families of Jordanian women married to non-Jordanian men. These women cannot pass on citizenship to their spouses and children, and the algorithm calculates the size of a family based only on the number of Jordanian citizens in it.

All the inconsistencies of the algorithm. Several people HRW interviewed said that applying online does not allow them to report expenses that exceed income. The NAF has confirmed that applications can only be processed if the expenses declared do not exceed 20 per cent of income. Yet such a system does not allow for an assessment of the stratagems that people in difficulty must adopt to meet ordinary expenses, for example by asking for assistance from relatives, buying on credit or accepting occasional jobs.

The assessment of the World Bank. In response to HRW’s concerns, the World Bank specified that information systems and technology can facilitate the delivery of social protection programs but cannot replace interactions between institutions and people. He added that Takaful has proven to be among the most redistributive programs currently running in Jordan, so he is working with the National Aid Fund to refine the algorithm by July 2023.