The imperialisms of Russia and China challenge Western hegemony – Corriere.it

The awakening of the brutality of war, in the heart of Europe, the awakening of history that brings back to the stage the oldest of ambitions: to create an empire, Maurizio Molinari tells us in his new book The return of empires. How the war in Ukraine has upset the global order (Rizzoli). Sure, the way things got on the ground, Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be a reborn Peter the Great. But what the editor of the newspaper la Repubblica analyzes is the end of the season of globalization that had brought down borders; and the return of the clash between powers, that is, the return to the geopolitical scene. Basically, the goal of some authoritarian governments to re-establish borders and modify them in an imperial perspective.

And not just Russia, on the pitch. That of the Czar of the Kremlin is a nineteenth-century ambition, says the author. But there is also an imperial strategy of Xi Jinping’s China which, through the commercial, technological and Artificial Intelligence challenge – accompanied by military strengthening – aims to downsize the United States, and the hegemony of the entire West, considered by Beijing in unstoppable decline, and to replace them, first in Asia and then globally.

Molinari analyzes one by one the four protagonists of the challenge to get out of the disorder into which the world has entered, a disorder that is the product of a partial weakening of the United States, of a modest geopolitical role of Europe, which is geographically central to economic growth. and the politics of China, of the revenge of a frustrated Russia. The analysis on the state of the Russian Federation, on Putin’s intentions and on the progress of the war in Ukraine is extremely lucid and even touches on a quadrant that is not often talked about, that part of Africa – more than twenty countries – that the Nations Unite abstained on condemning the Russian invasion. A sign of how the imperial will of a power does not stop at geographical proximitybut uses a skilful policy of capturing countries that are often poor and unstable using the weapons of both food supplies and mercenaries of the Wagner Brigade.

The pages on China tell a more complicated reality than that created by Putin’s dreams. Here, Molinari has some interesting readings. To name one: the construction, which Xi started a decade ago, of a Eurasia centered on Beijing and held together by physical networks – road, rail, port and so on – and by digital networks, as well as by economic relations, by investments. Although it has slowed sharply in recent years, the Belt and Road Initiative (or New Silk Road) remains the distinctive project of the Chinese leader in this sense. And, to realize the hegemonic ambition, the Communist Party of China imposed itself on the conquest of Taiwanconsidered a rebellious province: being able to bring it under its control would be an enormous geopolitical victory for Beijing and, above all, would greatly reduce the influence of its opponent Washington in the Pacific basin.

And then, in the book there is the West: Americans and Europeans. Molinari knows the United States well. In the book he analyzes in particular the leadership of Joe Biden: he appreciates his ability to have built and held strong the relationship with the Europeans in the face of the invasion of Ukraine and – interestingly – he writes that the Pentagon has found serious interlocutors in the Russian general staff to keep the nuclear arsenal under control.

Furthermore, it raises the question of the post-war Ukraine. And he argues that the two sides of the Atlantic have the opportunity to redefine the international balance around an aggressive anti-Putin deterrence. In addition, the current crisis has the potential to strengthen bonds in terms of energy, technology and the environment between the US and the EU. The editor of Repubblica then notes that the excellent relationship between Biden and Mario Draghi meant that Italy was a fundamental ally of Washington in the face of Putin’s aggression, especially given some fluctuations by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

It is by no means certain that the end of the war in Ukraine will bring with it the end of the imperial ambitions of the autocrats: indeed, the conflict will be long. For now, says Molinari, NATO considers Russia a hot enemy and China a global rival in the face of which every reasonable move is proven unfounded.

The volume and the author

Is titled The return of empires the new book by Maurizio Molinari, a volume enriched by numerous maps published by Rizzoli (pages 237, € 20). Born in Rome in 1964, Molinari was for a long time foreign correspondent of the Press, of which he was then director from 2016 until 2020, when he took over the direction of the Republic. Among Molinari’s most recent books: The battlefield (The ship of Theseus, 2021); Atlas of the changing world (Rizzoli, 2020); Siege of the West (The ship of Theseus, 2019)