The decarbonisation of the skies passes through the renewal of the fleets

Not only technological evolution and new fuels. The process of decarbonization of the aviation sector it also passes for a decided fleet renewal, given that older models are significantly more polluting than recent ones. It is when it emerges from a study of Bain & Companywhich highlights as an investment of 1,300 billion dollars for the production of sustainable fuel (Saf– Sustainable Aviation Fuel) can only satisfy 20% of forecasted demand by 2050.

Ambitious goals

The mid-century date is not accidental, given that by then the aviation sector aims to reachnet zero emissions goal, which means the ability to absorb a quantity of CO2 equal to that emitted. An ambitious goal, considering that air traffic will continue to grow by 3% per year until 2050: in order to reach this target, commercial aviation will have to accelerate the renewal of fleets with more efficient aircraft and invest in research, development and technologies innovative to make it practicable to use renewable energy sources.

Weighs the uncertainty

“The transition will be long and complex and, in the current scenario – characterized by great pressure on the players in the sector – the risk of defocusing and wasting investments is significant. In this context, improving fuel efficiency is the most effective approach to reduce emissions within the next decade,” he points out Pierluigi Serlengamanaging partner Italy and global co-head of Bain & Company’s Aerospace, Defense & Government Services practice.

The roadmap

Faced with these prospects, analysts point out, airlines should drastically accelerate aircraft renewal rates. Then invest in innovative fuels and thirdly increase the supply of renewable energy. Today most engines are already certified for the use of a mixture composed of 50% Saf and the other half traditional fuel, but the road to reaching 100% appears very long.

Among the recommendations of Bain & Company there is also that of adapting land operations to manage the new challenges – in terms of safety, logistics and delivery times – posed by new technologies. Otherwise the latter will not be usable. “The most interesting option for reducing emissions in the medium term is that of combining the various solutions possible today”, underlines Serlenga, “strengthening the effort aimed at improving the efficiency of current systems and accelerating fleet renewal cycles, maximizing the use of Saf and through the implementation of aircraft with hybrid-electric propulsion. The use of these solutions can make it possible to remedy, in the medium term, the limits of energy storage in batteries which currently make it impossible to use full-electric solutions on commercial aircraft with more than 100 seats”.

Comparing electricity and hydrogen

Analysts estimate that the future will be electric, given its great energy efficiency. Aviation will also benefit from advances in batteries in the automotive sector, with the acceleration of the transition to electric vehicles. Though battery density is unlikely to evolve rapidly enough through 2050 to power most of the air travel covered today by jets.

As for thehydrogenis considered a risky bet, given that “first of all it would require a new aircraft architecture to accommodate larger tanks capable of handling very different ranges of temperatures and pressures from what happens today: companies would therefore have to choose between the loss of flight or passenger capacity”.

Not to mention that hydrogen is also difficult to transport and expensive to liquefy. “According to our analyses, the cost of converting 53 airports in Europe is between 50 and 65 billion dollars”. A figure that is difficult to sustain.