The climate crisis is warming Europe but renewables bode well
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In Europe, climate change is exacting a serious human, economic and environmental toll, ours is the fastest warming continent in the world. 2022 was marked by extreme heat, drought and wildfires. Sea surface temperatures around Europe have reached new highs, accompanied by marine heatwaves. The glacier melt it was unprecedented. So it is State of the climate in Europe 2022the second report in an annual series produced by the world meteorological organization, the United Nations Meteorological Agency, and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change service.
The report shows that Europe has warmed twice as much as the global average recorded since the 1980s, “with far-reaching impacts on the socio-economic fabric and ecosystems of the region”.
In 2022, Europe was approx 2.3 degrees above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) used as a reference for the Paris agreement on climate change, which points to an increase in the average global temperature contained within +1.5 degrees.
Record temperatures also impact the nuclear, with problems for the cooling of the plants due to the reduced flow of the rivers. And this, “especially for potential nuclear power plant sites in southern Europe”, underlines “the need to establish adaptation measures associated with rigorous safety reviews, if it is decided that the plants should continue to operate”, warn the UN and Copernicus.
But, and it is a “sign of hope for the future”, last year for the first time, thewind energy and solar combined generated 22.3% of the European Union’s electricity in 2022, exceeding the share produced by fossil gasThe methane (20%), and the one with the coal (16%), taken individually.
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But the climate emergency is also a health emergency. “The record-breaking heat stress that Europeans experienced in 2022 was one of the leading drivers of weather-related excess mortality in Europe,” he says Charles Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “Unfortunately, this cannot be considered a one-off event or a climate quirk – warns Buontempo – our current understanding of the climate system and its evolution tells us that these types of events are part of a model that will make the more frequent and more intense extreme heat stresses across the region“.
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Based on information in the Emergency events database (Em-dat), meteorological, hydrological and climate hazards in Europe in 2022 resulted in 16,365 reported fatalities and directly affected 156,000 people. About the 67% of events has been related to floods and stormsrepresenting the majority of total economic damages of approximately $2 billion. Much more serious, in terms of mortality, were the heat waveswhich reportedly resulted in more than 16,000 excess deaths.
“In the 2022, many countries in western and southwestern Europe had their warmest year on record. L’summer was the hottest on record: High temperatures have exacerbated the severe and widespread conditions of Droughtfed violent fires which resulted in the second largest burned area on record and led to thousands of excessive deaths associated with heat”, summed up the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas.
Climate variability and long-term climate change “have an impact on every aspect of the energy sector”, warn the UN and Copernicus, “on demand, supply and the infrastructure that guarantees safe and reliable operations, the grid”. So climate services and impact data are vital. “Climate services play a key role in ensuring the resilience of energy systems to climate-related shocks, planning operations and informing measures to increase energy efficiency,” underlines the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas.
EU pledges to increase renewable energy production to at least 42.5% of total consumption by 2030, almost double 2019 levels.
Meanwhile, as mentioned, in 2022, wind and solar power, combined, generated 22.3% of EU electricity in Europe, exceeding for the first time the share of fossil gas, methane (20% ) and the share of coal (16%), however taken individually, according to the report of the independent energy research center Ember released in January.
There electricity production in the EU, underlines the Ember study, however, it remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels: 39.6% (1,104 terawatt hours) of electricity is generated from coal, gas and other fossil sources.
- The coal as mentioned it produces 16% of the electricity (447 twh), the gas 20% (557 twh) e other fossil fuels 3.6% (100twh). The nuclear it remains the largest single contributor to EU electricity generation with 22% (613 twh) of the mix.
- 15% (420 twh) is produced bywind and 7.3% (203 twh) from solar. When combined, ember continues, wind and solar produce more electricity than any other single fuel (22.3%, 623 twh).
- The rest is produced by hydroelectric (10%, 283 twh), biomass (6%, 167 twh) e other renewables (0.2%, 6.7twh).
The transition from fossil fuels, however, “was held back by the twin crises that affected the European electricity system in 2022”, analysts specify. In 2022, Europe faced the worst drought in 500 years, pushing hydroelectric power generation to its lowest level since at least 2000. At the same time, there were unexpected and widespread production outages at French nuclear power plants that occurred just as German units were being shut down. Five-sixths of the gap was filled by more wind and solar and a drop in electricity demand, Ember said, “but the remaining sixth was offset by more generation from fossil fuels,” but without the feared happening.” return of coal’.
The increase in solar production has occurred due to a large increase in solar energy capacity. In addition, annual surface solar radiation in 2022 was the highest since records began in 1983, 4.9% above the 1991-2020 average. This circumstance underlines “the importance of meteorological variables – explain the UN and Copernicus – Surface solar radiation for photovoltaics, wind speed for wind, rainfall and outflow for hydroelectric”.
From this point of view, in general, more is available in Southern Europe solar radiation shallow due to solar angle and low cloud cover. The potential ofwind energy on the other hand, it is greater on the ocean, in particular off the coasts of Ireland and Portugal and the Aegean Sea. L’hydroelectric energy instead it is directly linked to the topography of Europe.
The meteorological factors driving the potential for renewable energy have great seasonal variability.
- The monthly average wind speed can vary from -40% to +80% of the average and the precipitation ±30% and the surface solar radiation approximately ±15%.
- Solar and wind tend to complement each other throughout the year: solar radiation is greatest in the summer half of the year while wind intensity is usually greatest in winter.
- Over the 30-year period 1991-2020, surface solar radiation increased, while wind speed and precipitation show no significant trend.
Different speech for the nuclear. Globally, disruptions to nuclear power operations due to adverse weather conditions have increased over the past three decades, although they still constitute a very small share of total nuclear outages, the UN and Copernicus said in a statement. State of the climate in Europe report 2022. In 2021, reported weather-related production losses accounted for about 0.33% of global nuclear power generation. Low river flows and rising temperatures and heat extremes were major factors. Under long-term worsening climate scenarios, southern Europe could see some of the largest global percentage increases in extreme temperatures above 40 degrees, as well as an increase in the number of consecutive rainless days. “This result, especially for i potential nuclear power plant sites in southern Europeemphasizes the need to establish adaptation measures associated with strict security reviewsif it is decided that the plants should continue to operate”, warn the UN and Copermicus.
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