Serie A, last trains for Europe and a safety playoff on the horizon: here’s what can happen
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With 90 minutes to go, Serie A still has few verdicts to issue. Scudetto to Napoli, a place in the Champions League for Lazio, Inter and Milan, the squad that will participate in the Europa League and Conference League and the third team that will be relegated to Serie B after Sampdoria and Cremonese remain to be defined.
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by Emanuele Gamba
Seeded Naples in the Champions League
As winners of the Serie A championship, Napoli will be top of the series in the next draw for the group stage of the Champions League, scheduled for 31 August. In the first urn there will also be Manchester City, Barcelona, Bayern, Psg, Benfica, one between Inter and Feyenoord and one between Rome and Seviliga. In fact, one place belongs to the holder of the Champions League: if it is City, it will leave the place to the winner of the Dutch championship. Another place is for the winner of the Europa League.
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Lazio, Inter and Milan qualified
The only unknown factor for Italy is Inter’s position in the draw. As mentioned, he can only be seeded by winning the Champions League, otherwise he will be in the second tier. Currently they are sure of the second tier Real Madrid, Manchester United, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, Leipzig, Porto and Arsenal. If Inter lose in Istanbul it will be in this bracket. If Inter lift the Champions League, Shakhtar will go to the second tier (and Feyenoord to the third). These are also the possible opponents of Napoli, Lazio and Milan.
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Because Italy can have 5 teams in the Champions League
There is still the possibility for Italy to have five teams in the Champions League and it is linked to winning the Rome in the Europa League final, on May 31 in Budapest. In the event of the Giallorossi’s success, Roma would automatically join the top 4 teams in Serie A and would be seeded. In this case, only the fifth in Serie A would go to the Europa League (plus Fiorentina if they win the Conference League) and the sixth or seventh to follow in the Conference League.
What happens if Atalanta and Roma finish level on points
Inter’s success in the Coppa Italia has for the moment extended the standings and places available for Europe: fifth and sixth in Serie A in the Europa League, seventh in the Conference League. Atalanta (61 points), Roma (60) and Juventus (59) are in the running. On the last day Atalanta-Monza, Rome-Spezia, Udinese-Juventus. In the event of a tie, direct matches count here, there is no tiebreaker. Atalanta counts two victories over Roma (1-0 and 3-1) but are at a disadvantage against Juventus (3-3 and 0-2), Roma are ahead of the black and whites (1-1 and 1-0) . Impossible to finish in three. The speech obviously concerns the current standings, without taking into account a probable new penalty from Juventus or the exclusion of the black and whites from the Cups. It should be remembered that it is still essential for Juventus to earn their pass on the pitch: in the event of exclusion, the Uefa penalty is discounted starting from the first season in which the team qualified.
What happens if Fiorentina win the Conference League
Italy can still have eight teams in Europe next year if Fiorentina win the Conference League and thus earn an additional place in the Europa League. What happens if Italy wins two or three European cups? Inter’s success in the Champions League doesn’t change anything for Italy, except for the Nerazzurri arm in the draw: Inzaghi’s team is already qualified for the next edition of the tournament and doesn’t free up a place. Roma’s victory in the Europa League, as we have seen, would lead to 5 teams in the Champions League, plus one in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. In this case, Fiorentina by winning the Conference would by right be in the Europa League: Italy would have 5 teams in the Champions League, 2 in the Europa League and 1 in the Conference League. If Roma don’t win the Europa League, but Fiorentina win the Conference, we will still have eight teams: 4 in the Champions League, 3 in the Europa League, 1 in the Conference.
What happens if Juventus is penalized again
Right now Juventus would be in the Conference League, even if they can still aim to get to the Europa League. But the fate of the bianconeri does not pass only from the field: on June 15th there will be the sentence for the second line of investigation by the federal prosecutor’s office. Furthermore, UEFA could exclude the club from the Cups for at least a year. That’s why even eighth place could be useful for going to the Conference League: Turin (53), Fiorentina (53), Monza (52) and Bologna (51) are at stake. On the last day Turin-Inter, Sassuolo-Fiorentina, Atalanta-Monza, Lecce-Bologna. Torino is ahead with Fiorentina (1-0 and 1-1) and Monza (2-1 and 1-1), tied with Bologna (1-2 and 1-0). Fiorentina are tied with Monza (1-1 and 1-1) and ahead with Bologna (1-2 and 1-2). Monza and Bologna are tied (1-2 and 1-0).
The safety race between Spezia and Verona
The last day will also decide who goes to Serie B after Sampdoria and Cremonese. With Lecce safe, Spezia and Verona remain at stake, paired with 31 points. On the calendar Milan-Verona and Rome-Spezia. In the event of a tie, the direct clashes do not count but the play-off on neutral ground in a one-off match: after 90 minutes, penalties are taken directly, without overtime.
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