Sahel, widespread hunger, terrorism, coups d’etat: the whole area survives between present and future crises

ROME – First the pandemic and the drought, then the war in Ukraine which, although distant, has exacerbated the already serious crisis in which the peoples of the Sahel live, a strip of territory in sub-Saharan Africa that stretches across the Sahara desert to the north. , the Sudanese savannah to the South, the Atlantic Ocean to the West and the Red Sea to the East and which covers (from West to East) the states of Gambia, Senegal, the southern part of Mauritania, central Mali, Burkina Faso, the southern part of Algeria and Niger, the northern part of Nigeria and Cameroon, the central part of Chad, southern Sudan, northern southern Sudan and Eritrea. An area of ​​climatic transition from the arid area of ​​the Sahara to the fertile one of the Sudanese savannah.

Food and social insecurity. The supplies of cereals from Ukraine and Russia have decreased. Inflation has caused the price of corn and wheat to rise by more than 30 percent. The consequences of the ongoing conflict fall on the poorest sections of the African population, who cannot afford to buy imported and therefore safer food. The FAO in one of his latest reports: in the next few months, thirty-four million people on the western side of the continent will not be able to secure food on a regular basis. Senegal, for example, is almost exclusively dependent on grain exports from Russia. According to some analysts, Moscow would exploit this crisis to somehow influence the attitude of African states on the ongoing conflict.

The fertilizer crisis. Russia is the second largest fertilizer supplier to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with 12 percent of the market. However, the interruption of supplies of raw materials is putting a strain on farmers’ work. The trade in potassium, which is one of the main components of fertilizers, is the one most at risk: Mali, Niger, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone and Senegal import 80 percent of this mineral from Russia and Belarus. Yet, for some analysts, this crisis could even have a positive side: push states to strengthen local economies to disengage from imports. Nigeria would have the ability to replace missing imports because the country has made significant investments in the fertilizer sector, exploiting the enormous natural gas resources. Morocco recently invested a billion dollars in Nigeria to build two new phosphate plants, according to data from theInternational Food Policy Research Institute. But the whole area of ​​the Sahel is characterized by political instability that negatively affects economic development. Since 2020 there have been five coups in the area, two of which in Burkina Faso. France is losing its historical influence, while Russia is conquering new spaces.

The foreign presence in the Sahel. Today, alongside the European Union and the United States, China, Russia, Turkey, the Gulf powers have arrived: all countries with a strong leadership imprint and therefore with problems of democracy – comments Ambassador Giuseppe Mistretta in a meeting recently organized byInstitute of International Politics ISPI. Yet the stabilization of the region has been a priority for the European Union since 2104. “Unfortunately today the political and security issues have deteriorated further. If before the problems were mainly concentrated in northern Mali, now they have extended to central Mali, in the northern and eastern areas of Burkina Faso, in western Niger and in coastal countries: Benin, Togo, Ivory Coast “, explains Niagalé Bagayoko. , security expert at theAfrican Security Sector Network, in Ghana. It is a multidimensional crisis because it involves different entities: the jihadists, the rebel groups that operate mainly in northern Mali, the new militias that are expanding in Mali as in Burkina Faso and in the western areas of Niger, criminal organizations, especially dedicated to human trafficking.

The migration issue. The migration crisis in the central Mediterranean has been dictating the agenda of European politics for years. Fighting irregular migratory flows, strengthening the capacity of governments in the area to control borders and facilitate return processes are a priority for the EU. But the only criminalization of passeur without a policy capable of providing valid alternatives in terms of employment, it does nothing but facilitate the recruitment of criminal organizations without solving the problem of irregular flows. The externalization of Europe’s borders in the Sahel and security-focused policies implemented by the EU and African governments have reduced the number of migrants reaching Europe, but have increased pressures on local, already fragile economic and social systems.

The role of Russia. Moscow exploits the instability of the area to its advantage and does so by focusing on security, also because the West is not willing to send soldiers to the ground, explains Tatiana Smirnova, researcher of the Center Francopaix, in Canada. The massive return of the Russian presence in Africa dates back to 2017, when military cooperation agreements were signed with Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. But recently he made headlines for the presence in the Sahel of the private soldiers of the Wagner group, who fight jihadists and guarantee protection to local authorities in exchange for financial compensation and mining concessions, as stated in the latest report. ISPI. Naturally the evolution of the Sahel equilibrium worries the West, because the Russians are expanding into a territory traditionally under the influence of Paris and where a widespread anti-French sentiment is not taking hold from today.