Middle East, the food crisis is “unprecedented”: the war in Ukraine weighs on the whole area

BAGHDAD (AsiaNews) – Fears of an unprecedented crisis are growing among the inhabitants of the region who, as never before, look to the future with uncertainty and the fear of not having enough money to purchase food and raw materials. At least this is what emerges from a survey commissioned and published by Al-Monitor in five Arab countries scattered between the Middle East and North Africa, according to which 68% of those questioned say they are “worried” about their ability to “access food”. Inflation and the cost of food are sensitive issues for local populations and the main reason behind the wave of protests that marked the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Today, according to experts, it is the Russian war in Ukraine that weighs heavily.

The investigation concerns Egypt, Turkey, Yemen, Tunisia and Iraq. And he examined the prospects in the short to medium term, projecting his gaze to the coming months in a historical phase in which, according to fao (UN agency for food and agriculture) prices in 2022 grew by 14.3%. For experts, this is the largest increase ever recorded since the 1990s. The poll of Al-Monitor And Premise Date examined almost 4,500 respondents, with a margin of error of around 3%, between 15 December 2022 and 10 January 2023. If so far the majority (62%) said they were able to find food to meet the needs , looking to the future, concern grows: 41% are somewhat worried and 27% express “deep concern” about being able to put food on the table within the next six months.

Countries most at risk.

Turkey. The greatest fears come from Turkish citizens, where 75% nourish some form of more or less profound fear (44% and 31%). Annual inflation reached its maximum in the last 24 years, reaching 84.4% in November, to drop to 64.27% in December, but this is a partial slowdown due to a favorable conjunction linked to the end of the year. Food prices rose nearly 1.9% in December from a month earlier, while year-on-year food inflation is around 78%, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute.

Tunisia. The North African country follows with 73%, but the situation is certainly not much better elsewhere. When asked about the increase in food and drink prices, the vast majority confirmed the escalation with 46% saying the prices were “much higher” and 36% saying they were “somehow higher”.

Egypt. Note the case of Egypt where for 75% of respondents prices are “much higher” and for 25% they are “a little higher”; after all, in the country of the pharaohs, inflation in December recorded a plus of 21.9%, an increase compared to the 19.2% of the previous month. And the increases in foodstuffs are added to those in gas, electricity and housing for an overall picture that arouses more than a fear for its inhabitants, also due to the strong dependence (about 80%) on the Russian market.

Iraq. Here last year, especially in the south, there were protests over the increase in foodstuffs, the increase in prices being due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yemen. The country is devastated by a bloody war, international organizations speak of conditions verging on famine while the country depends for more than 40% on grain supplies from Moscow and Kiev.

The exponential increase in bread is significant. Unsurprisingly, most of the survey participants saw a more significant rise in bread prices just in the last month, with Egypt in the worst case scenario with 54% reporting “substantial” price growth. In the other countries examined this figure is always less than 50% and this can in part be attributed to the fact that the per capita consumption of bread in Cairo fluctuates between 150 and 180 kg, more than double the global average of 70-80 kg .