IPCC, the new global warming report

It is a summary report that looks to the future, which underlines the seriousness of the ongoing climate crisis, the urgency of action to counter it, but focuses on hope, because there is still a chance to stem global warming. The first measure, reiterates the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change (AR6) with the Synthesis Report (SYR) is the reduction of emissions and the cutting of fossil fuels.
The text published today integrates the results of the three working groups (Physical-scientific basis (2021), Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (2022), Climate change mitigation (2022)) and the three special reports Global Warming of 1.5, published in 2018, Climate Change and Land (2019), Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019).

This report concludes an 8-year work (one year beyond the normal 7-year cycle), under challenging conditions due to the pandemic. “The messages this cycle has brought to our attention are extremely worrying – He says Lucy Perugiawhich has been participating in the climate negotiations since 2003 by providing scientific support to the Italian government delegation – even if they provide promising solutions, which however must be implemented quickly”. In particular, in the Report, the consideration that many changes due to past and future emissions are irreversible for centuries or millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea levels. but acting immediately would mitigate the incidence of extreme phenomena relatively quickly.

Gravity, urgency, hope

The messages can, as mentioned, be summarized in three words: gravity, urgency and hope. It emerges from the report the importance of keeping the temperature increase below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, which is crucial for many populations and ecosystems such as small islands and regions dependent on melting glaciers and snow. Above this level, many ecosystems and populations will no longer be able to adapt to changes.

Globally it indicates that we need to decrease emissions, to avoid a rise in temperatures beyond 1.5°C. At the moment, the commitments made under the Paris Agreement are not ambitious enough and current policies often do not take into account the path outlined in those commitments, so we are on the road leading to an increase in global average temperature that can reach 3.5°C, and this poses a threat to humanity as a whole complex.

However, there is the possibility of reversing the trend and the IPCC report presents a wide variety of solutions within specific sectors and even across sectors. But first of all it is necessary accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, which would reduce air pollution while lowering greenhouse gas emissions. The sustainable management of forests and agriculture, the protection of forests, are activities indicated by experts to absorb carbon dioxide, improve ecosystem services and together with these the living conditions of many populations.

The report indicates that to achieve the reduction of emissions it is necessary to take all possible paths. Lucia Perugini says: “All the options must be implemented to the maximum of their capacity. We often witness debates that consider, as alternatives, the possibilities of absorbing emissions (through reforestation or CCS technologies) or their reduction, or that create a competition between one renewable energy source and another. But the science is clear: we have to exploit all the available options and we have to do it now”.

Cut emissions

Every ton of carbon dioxide emissions contributes to global warming. With each increase in temperature the Earth’s water cycle increases, the extremes are greater in frequency and intensity, the ability of the ocean and land to absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases. Although some changes due to past and future emissions are irreversible, reducing greenhouse gas emissions limits the increase in global warming. To reach these conclusions, the IPCC assessment report combined scientific data elaborated at different levels: observations, climate models, data from the past (paleo records), geophysical knowledge of the processes, which were then integrated with the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios of future emissions on possible mitigation trajectories and the resulting global warming.

Observations region by region

A further novelty that provides the AR6 is a regional representation of climate change and its consequences. One of these aspects concerns, for example, the attribution to climate change of past extreme events and how these – for example droughts, floods, heat waves, extreme episodes of sea level rise – will change in the future depending on the of global warming, and therefore of future greenhouse gas emissions. Each region is predicted to experience more and more simultaneous and multiple changes in climate impact.

Forecasts for Europe

With a global warming of at least 2°C and above, the European region will experience the combination of different climate changes by mid-century, such as:

• increased warming, extreme temperatures

• increasing drought and aridity in central and southern Europe

• decrease in rainfall in Southern Europe and increase in Northern Europe

• increase in the fire risk period

• increase in mean and extreme sea level

• decrease in snow cover

• decrease in wind speed

The involvement of the population

If the Report takes the form of a summary that governments will be able to use to make decisions that can no longer be postponed, it underlines however that there is also individual responsibility, daily actions that can add to national policies, such as low-carbon lifestyles. Again, it is reiterated once again that there can be no climate action without social justice.

The complete summary of the Report released by the IPCC

The report, approved during a week-long session in Interlaken, highlights the losses and damages we are already suffering and will continue in the future, particularly affecting the most vulnerable people and ecosystems. The right action to be taken now could lead to the transformative change essential to a sustainable and equitable world. “Climate justice is paramountbecause those who have contributed the least to climate change are disproportionately affected,” he said Aditi Mukherjione of the 93 authors of this Synthesis Report, the concluding chapter of the sixth evaluation of the Panel.

“Nearly half of the world’s population lives in regions highly vulnerable to climate change. Over the past decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms have been 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions,” he added. In this decade, Accelerated climate change adaptation action is essential to bridge the gap between existing and needed adaptation. Meanwhile, to keep warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors in a deep, rapid and sustained way. Emissions are expected to fall already today and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030 if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C.

The solution lies in climate-resilient development: for example, access to energy and clean technologies improves health, especially for women and children; low-carbon electrification, walking and cycling and public transport improve air quality, health, job opportunities and equity. The economic benefits to people’s health from improving air quality alone would be about the same, or perhaps even greater, than the costs of reducing or avoiding emissions.

Climate resilient development becomes progressively more challenging with each increase in warming. For this reason, the choices that will be made in the coming years will play a crucial role in deciding our future and that of the generations to come. To be effective, these choices must be rooted in our different values, worldviews and knowledge, including scientific knowledge, indigenous knowledge and local knowledge. This approach will facilitate climate resilient development and enable locally appropriate and socially acceptable solutions. “The biggest welfare gains could come from prioritizing climate risk reduction for low-income and marginalized communitiesincluding people living in informal settlements,” he said Christopher Trisos, one of the authors of the report. “Accelerating climate action will only be possible if funding increases dramatically. Insufficient and uneven funding is holding back progress.”

The file

The IPCC calls for cutting emissions and fossil fuels as priority measures for the climate

by Cristina Nadotti

March 20, 2023

There is sufficient global capital to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions if existing barriers are reduced. Governments, through public funding and clear signals to investors, are key to reducing these barriers. There are already tried and tested policy measures that can work to achieve deep emission reductions and climate resilienceprovided they are expanded and applied more widely. Political commitment, coordinated policies, international cooperation, ecosystem management and inclusive governance are all important elements for effective and equitable climate action.

If the right technology, know-how and policy measures are shared and if adequate funding is made available, every community can reduce or avoid carbon-intensive consumption. At the same time, with significant investment in adaptation, we can avert increased risks, especially for vulnerable groups and regions.

Effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30-50% of the Earth’s land, fresh water and oceans will help ensure a healthy planet. Urban areas offer a global-scale opportunity for ambitious climate action that contributes to sustainable development. Changes in the food sector, electricity, transport, industry, buildings and land use can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, they can make it easier for people to lead low-carbon lifestyles, thereby also improving health and well-being. A better understanding of the consequences of overconsumption can help people make more informed choices. Transformative changes are more likely to succeed when there is trust, when everyone works together to prioritize risk reduction, and when the benefits and burdens are shared fairly,” said the IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. “We live in a diverse world where everyone has different responsibilities and different opportunities to make change. Some can do a lot, while others will need support to manage change.”