Horn of Africa: after three years of drought, violent rains are coming that shatter the hope of an economic recovery both in Ethiopia and in Somalia

ROME – The Horn of Africa is struggling with the worst famine in recent years in a context in which 345 million people worldwide risk not having access to food in 2023. After three years of drought that have brought the rural economy of the ethiopia and Somalia, the extreme rains of recent days have dealt the final blow to the hope that the Horn of Africa could recover, in a short time, from the most serious food crisis in recent decades. As always, the main victims are children.

Climate and Hunger. Over the past three weeks, floods have killed at least 50 people, forced more than 30,000 families from their homes and wiped out at least 100,000 head of livestock and 21,000 hectares of crops, both in Ethiopia and Somalia. Unfortunately, the Horn of Africa is a perfect example to show how the food crisis and climate emergencies are inextricably interconnected, explained Save the Children.

The numbers in Somalia and Ethiopia. The balance of hunger in the two countries is dramatic. About 25 million people are on the verge of famine and over 2.5 million children suffer from malnutrition. The prolonged, now endemic aridity ruins the soil, making it more difficult to absorb rainwater, which is necessary for cultivation. Without nutritious food, children under five are at high risk of acute malnutrition which can lead to death in the worst case; at best, it can cause stunting and impede normal mental and physical development.

The warning from the United Nations. Last year the UN warned that Somalia faced impending famine, also caused by war-induced increases in food prices in Ukraine. The fear is that the disaster of 2011 will be repeated, when 260,000 people died from the famine. The regional spokesperson of Save The Children for eastern and southern Africa, Malama Mwila underlined the need for a fund for losses and damages to be set up as soon as possible – as foreseen with the agreement reached at COP27 – with money destined for climate disasters. The 2022 United Nations Conference on Climate Change, known as COP27, was the XXVII UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The numbers of hunger in the world. The World Food Programme predicts that 345 million people worldwide will be food insecure this year, more than double the number in 2020. More than 900,000 people around the globe are already surviving in conditions of famine – ten times the number in fifty years does. About 828 million people are already undernourished: 150 million more in the last three years, due to the consequences of the pandemic.

But why is the world hungrier than ever? Conflicts are still the main cause of hunger, as evidenced by the 70 percent of victims who live in areas plagued by war and violence. The events in Ukraine are further evidence of how bombs and bullets fuel famine, forcing people from their homes, cutting off sources of income and destroying countries’ economies. Climate shocks destroy lives, crops and livelihoods and undermine people’s ability to feed themselves. Global fertilizer prices have risen even faster than food prices, which remain at their highest levels in a decade. The effects of the war in Ukraine, including rising natural gas prices, have further disrupted global fertilizer production and exports. In this context, the risk is that the current crisis in access to safe food will lead to a collapse in the availability of food.

The UN resolution on climate change. At the end of March, the United Nations General Assembly, on the initiative of Vanuatu, an archipelagic nation in the South Pacific made up of about 80 islands extending for 1300 km, adopted a resolution by virtue of which the Assembly itself will be able to request the legal opinion of the International Court of Justice to evaluate the responsibilities of States which, “by their acts and omissions”, damage the climate to the detriment of other States, more vulnerable due to their geographical position and socio-economic context.