Heat waves: Europe is among the regions most at risk

Let’s go back to talking about global warming and the dreaded anomalous heat waves, which in recent years have increased both in terms of frequency and in terms of extent and duration, due to the climate change we are witnessing. According to the WHO (World Health Organization), between 1998 and 2017 more than 166,000 people died as a result of these extreme events, while it is estimated thatheat wave from record registered in Europe in the’summer of 2003 have caused more than 70,000 victims. And it is necessary to prepare in time to face similar, or even worse, situations in the future. This is the appeal of a group of researchers, led by Vikki Thompson from the University of Bristol (United Kingdom), which used statistical tools to assess which countries are most at risk in terms of the impact that future heat waves could have: thecentral Europe is among them. The results of the study were published in Nature Communications.

The researchers of the English university have been dealing with these issues for some time, and in 2019 that of Bristol it had been the first university in the UK to officially declare a climate emergency. “Declaring a climate and ecological emergency,” he said at the time Laura Dickinson, from the civil engineering department – it’s the right thing to do. This sends a clear message that students and staff know we need to act radically now: first, by giving appropriate weight to the severity of the crisis through our teaching, our research and the way the university is run; secondly, by leading other universities to put pressure on the UK government to act decisively and urgently”. We’re talking about four years ago, but these statements ring more timely than ever.

Often, the researchers write in their recent article, we find ourselves managing emergencies during construction and planning the necessary interventions only retrospectively, but to avoid witnessing new catastrophes it is necessary to act first. Using the extreme value theorya statistical tool used to study the extreme deviations from the “classical” probability distribution, and by combining it with large datasets from both climate models and actual observations, the research team has identified regions globally where it is most likely that temperature records are overcome in the short term, and therefore the communities potentially most at risk.

“As heatwaves are happening more and more often, we need to be more prepared,” Thompson says. , and still others are already very hot.We have to ask whether i heat action plans in these areas they are sufficient”.

Among the potentially most vulnerable areas, the authors cite theAfghanistanthe Papua New Guinea and theCentral America. Even Central Europe, together with Beijing, could be at great risk if they face record heat waves, especially since these are densely populated areas, and the people affected could number in the millions. Some of the impacts of these events, especially those on health, are obvious, but socio-economic impacts must also be considered, such as the possible loss of large quantities of crops or livestock.

As for the past, the authors point out that events considered unlikely occurred in 31% of the regions analysed, taking into consideration the period from 1959 to 2021. “Being prepared can save lives”, he concludes Dann Mitchell, co-author of the study and professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol. “We have witnessed some of the most unexpected heatwaves worldwide, resulting in tens of thousands of heat-related deaths. In this study, we show that such record-breaking events can happen anywhere. Governments around the world need to be prepared”.