Gemmato, Undersecretary of Health and the declaration on vaccines denied by the facts
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Undersecretary of Health Marcello Gemmato says that Italy did very badly during the pandemic and that there is no evidence that without vaccination things would have gone better. But the data says the opposite.
According to the most recent studies, the anti Covid19 vaccines have avoided about 20 million deaths in the first year of use alone, therefore from December 2020 to December 2021.
These figures derive from mathematical models that take into account the lethality of the virus left to circulate freely and the excess mortality, i.e. the number of deaths recorded in a specific group of the population in a given period and compared with the normally expected mortality. In addition to mathematical models, there is data from around the world that confirms the enormous impact of vaccines. For example, in the United States in August 2022, the risk of dying from Covid19 for an unvaccinated person was 12 times greater than for a vaccinated person.
If vaccines are so effective why about 80% of Covid19 deaths occur in vaccinated people?
The anti Covid19 vaccines have a very high efficacy in counteracting the most serious forms of Covid19 but obviously in elderly or ultra-fragile subjects they may not be sufficient. ISS data shows that vaccinated subjects who died from Covid19 are on average older and with more pathologies than unvaccinated subjects. Furthermore, the high percentage of vaccinated subjects can be explained by Simpson’s statistical paradox. The pool of “vaccinated” subjects is vastly larger than the “unvaccinated” pool, so the sample of deaths reflects this proportion. If the entire population were vaccinated then all deceased subjects would be vaccinated.
If vaccines are so effective why have we reached the fourth dose?
The need to use a fourth dose of the anti-Covid19 vaccine derives from the fact that Sars-CoV2 mutates very quickly and this causes a partial escape from our immune system. Furthermore, Coronaviruses are known for their ability to cause re-infections and non-lasting immunity. The neutralizing antibodies that our immune system produces to counteract Covid19 infections fade within a few months of inoculation of the vaccine, which is why a periodic booster is necessary in some categories, exactly as with the flu.
If vaccines are so effective how did some nations overcome Covid19 without vaccines?
Vaccination coverage is not comparable in all countries of the world, some very virtuous nations such as Chile have achieved practically complete vaccination coverage while some nations have not had the same luck. It is estimated that in Africa, on average, only 25% of the population has complete vaccination coverage, but there are a number of reasons that make it difficult to estimate the impact of Covid19 in Africa:
- population tends to be younger than in Europe and the USA
- difficulty in finding data on infections and deaths
- presence of genetic variants in the African population potentially protective against Covid19
- immune system of the African population more prone to stimuli
Recovery from Covid19 guarantees protection, why get vaccinated?
Individuals who contract Covid19 and who recover have protection similar to that conferred by the vaccine but run the risk of the initial infection. In fact we know that an unvaccinated subject always risks more than a vaccinated one in case of Sars-CoV2 infection. Furthermore, the immune response stimulated by natural infection is much more variable and heterogeneous than that stimulated by the vaccine. So a healed subject may not have the same protection as a vaccinated subject.
The anti Covid19 vaccines are the most studied and tested drugs in the history of medicine, like all drugs they present the risk of side effects which are however largely balanced by the positive effects. AIFA and the other agencies continue to collect data on adverse reactions and confirm that the anti-Covid vaccines are extremely safe and effective.
REF:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00320-6/fulltext
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
https://www.aifa.gov.it/rapporto-vaccini
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