Food insecurity, the eighteen “hunger hot spots” identified in twenty-two countries: in five of these the forecasts are very bad

ROME – L’Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn: Acute food insecurity worsens further in 18″hunger hot spots” – for a total of 22 countries – during the forecast period, from June to November 2023. Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen remain at the highest level of concern. Haiti, the Sahel (Burkina Faso and Mali) and the Sudan have been raised to the highest levels of concern, due to severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods in Haiti, as well as Burkina Faso and Mali, and the recent outbreak of conflict in Sudan.

High-risk countries. All top-level hunger outbreaks involve populations facing – or expected to face shortly – a food shortage, or are at risk of deteriorating to conditions that one would not hesitate to describe as “catastrophic”, given that they have already experienced critical food insecurity and are facing serious aggravating factors. These countries require the most urgent attention. Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Syrian Arab Republic are hot spots of the highest concern, and the alarm is also extended to Myanmar in this edition. All of these hotspots have large numbers of people facing critical acute food insecurity, coupled with exacerbating factors that are expected to further escalate life-threatening conditions in the coming months.

Hot spots added. Lebanon, El Salvador and Nicaragua have been added to the list of hunger hotspot countries, from the September 2022 edition. Malawi, Guatemala and Honduras remain the hunger hotspot countries. The deterioration of acute food insecurity in hunger hotspots occurs in the context of a global food crisis. As a result, the countries and situations covered in this report show the largest projected worsenings of hunger over the reporting period, but do not represent all countries with high levels of acute food insecurity.

The case of Sudan. The outbreak of conflict in Sudan marks a new peak in global levels of organized violence and armed conflict which have declined slightly since the last edition of this report. The conflict will disrupt livelihoods, including agricultural activities and trade, as people are directly attacked or flee the prospect of attacks or face movement restrictions and administrative impediments. Furthermore, newly emerging conflicts, especially the outbreak of conflict in Sudan, are likely to determine trends in global conflicts and impact several neighboring countries. The use of explosive devices and siege tactics in several hunger hotspots continues to push people to catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity, highlighting the critical role of humanitarian access in preventing the worst outcomes of hunger. Economic concerns continue to drive acute food insecurity in nearly all hunger hotspots.

Global trends related to the economy. This reflects a global trend already seen in 2022, when economic risks were causing more countries to go hungry than conflicts. The global economy is expected to slow in 2023 – amid monetary tightening in advanced economies – by raising the cost of credit. Despite a year of easing in international food prices, domestic prices remain high, amid low foreign exchange reserves in many countries, limiting imports. Limited economic access is likely to be further exacerbated by the overall reduction in donor support to compensate for world hunger.

The role of extreme climatic events. Weather extremes, such as heavy rains, tropical storms, cyclones, floods, droughts and increased climate variability, remain significant drivers in some countries and regions. The forecast for May 2023 suggests an 82% probability that the conditions of El Niño they will start in May-July 2023, with significant implications for several hunger hotspots. Continuous monitoring of forecasts and their impacts on production remains essential. Cyclone Mocha left a trail of devastation in May 2023 in Myanmar, where families in many townships and places of displacement in northern Rakhine have lost substantial food supplies and livelihoods. access to food. This is essential to avoid further deterioration of acute food insecurity and malnutrition.

Humanitarian access is limited in various ways. In the hot spots Of major concern, humanitarian actions are key to preventing further hunger and death. However, humanitarian access is limited in various ways, including insecurity due to violence or organized conflict, the presence of administrative or bureaucratic impediments and movement restrictions. This report provides country-specific recommendations on priorities for emergency response, as well as preventive actions to address existing humanitarian needs and ensure short-term protective interventions before new needs materialize.