Electric cars, fleet at 100 million in 2026

Electric cars, fleet at 100 million in 2026

The need to stem the worrying phenomenon linked to climate changes and the growing awareness that the planet's resources are not infinite have made sustainability a duty to be pursued with concrete and effective actions. This also applies to the world ofautomotive which in the future promises to be more and more greens. Also thanks to the push at European level: in fact, from 2035 the production of endothermic engines will stop (with the exception of those that can be powered by e-fuels), a measure in line with the Brussels Fit for 55 plan, which aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

The Global Electric Vehicle Outlookannual report produced by Bloomberg highlights that sales of electric vehicles will continue to grow rapidly in the coming years, rising from 10.5 million in 2022 to almost 27 million in 2026. The share of electric vehicles in new sales will instead rise from 14% in 2022 to 30% in 2026 , with much higher levels in some markets (52% in China, the world's leading exporter of electric cars, and 42% in Europe). In the Old Continent some automotive markets will advance faster than others, with i Nordic countries which will reach a share of 89% and the Germany by 59%. In the United States, thanks to the important impetus given by theInflation Reduction Act (American plan that intends to support investments in the climate and health), by 2026 electric vehicles will represent almost 28% of car sales compared to 7.6% in 2022. The global share will then pass to 44% of sales of cars by 2030 and 75% by 2040.

Revenues on the rise

The fleet will grow even faster, growing from 27 million electric vehicles on the road at the end of 2022 to over 100 million by 2026, to reach 731 million in 2040, when they will represent 46% of the total number of cars in circulation. The report also points out that EV sales growth will slow slightly after 2030 in major markets such as Europe, China And United States which will begin to saturate.

The study then explains that electrification will rapidly spread to all areas of road transport. Sales of electric light commercial vehicles are expected to grow rapidly due to increased model availability, reaching nearly 70% of global sales by 2040, led by China. The same trend will affect the segment of public transport. Europe and the United States are starting to catch up with China in this market and by 2026 electric vehicles will reach 36% and 24% of sales respectively, according to the report. As for motorcycles and three-wheeled vehicles, the forecast is that globally they will almost all be electric by 2040. The growth of the market will result in an exponential increase in revenues: from 8.8 trillion dollars in 2030 to 57 trillion of 2050.

Critical points

The growth in sales of electric cars will correspond to a progressive decline of forms of food based on fossil fuels. Sales of combustion cars have already reached their peak in 2017 and will see a 39% drop by 2026. In order to support this growth, however, analysts explain in the survey, a more incisive effort is needed. Starting with the need to set up more infrastructure for recharging. Although the latter are growing rapidly globally, the report continues, if it does not accelerate further, they could still represent a potential obstacle for the electrification of the automotive market in many countries. It will also be necessary encourage greater development of heavy electric vehicles, a market that is still far behind the climate neutrality objectives; invest in all areas of the lithium battery supply chain, for which annual demand will grow rapidly between now and 2035; finally, support the supply of raw materials and ensure adequate recycling of materials.

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