Decarbonise electricity production by 2035: a study

The study shows:

• the need for an increase of over 90 GW of renewables compared to the installed capacity of 2021. A figure slightly higher than the 85 GW already foreseen by Elettricità Futura;
• the urgency of a clear change of step with respect to the current levels of annual installation of renewable capacity (about 8 times more). The goal is to reach around 250 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2035 (around 160 in 2030), for almost 450 TWh of national production – (almost 350TWh in 2030);
• that the flexibility it will play a decisive role on different time scales (daily, weekly, seasonal) and will require a mix of technologies, including demand response flexibility, storage, networks and electrolysers;
• that the contribution of fossil gas generation in 2035 will be almost nil (54 TWh in 2030). Some thermoelectric generation plants will still be used with hydrogen and biogas fuel.

The scenery:

• does not provide for any use of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Excessively onerous technology and dependent on synergies with the oil and gas supply chain;
• sets limits on the amount of energy imported. To prevent the system from relying excessively on energy supplies from abroad, also in line with energy security objectives;
• assumes a level of investment in batteries has been achieved not lower than the estimates made by European network operators;
• puts a cap on capacity electricity generation from biomass;
• consider sufficient green hydrogen production for the industry.

In order for the decarbonised electricity system by 2035 to be feasible at the lowest possible cost, some enabling policies will be needed:

• coherence of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) with the objectives of decarbonization and increase in renewables and them monitoring;
• interventions in authorization process renewable plants and enabling infrastructures;
• application of new electricity dispatching with integration of all sources of flexibility (including demand response through aggregators and non-programmable renewable sources);
• facilitation of the dissemination of long-term contracts marketing of the energy of new renewable plants;
• enabling energy efficiency and demand response of consumers (industrial, commercial, domestic) through dynamic prices and coherent signals in the bill which include the elimination of subsidies for fossil energy;
• update of the system of incentives for grid operators in order to exploit the flexibility resources distributed and to make distributors responsible;
• Elimination of investments in the electricity system inconsistent with decarbonisation.

Giuseppe Onufrio, Executive Director of Greenpeace Italy: “The analysis we are presenting demonstrates how, also in Italy, the energy transition towards a completely renewable base of the electricity system is widely possible and with technologies that are already available. Fighting the climate crisis above all implies a change of energy paradigm: it is necessary to progressively electrify the use of energy and produce hydrogen from renewables where necessary. It can be done, it must be done. Those who continue to deny it are attesting to ideological positions in favor of the conservation of the fossil system.”

Stefano Ciafani, National President of Legambiente: “The energy transition passes first of all through renewables, efficiency and innovation. The study we presented today confirms that clean sources are the right way forward but our country must step up the pace, speeding up the authorization procedures , starting with the new photovoltaic and wind projects, accelerating the construction of large plants, the development of agri-voltaics, networks and storage, the diffusion of energy communities and anaerobic digestion plants, replicating virtuous experiences and opening many construction sites that go in the right direction of the ecological transition. Italy has all the characteristics to become a strategic hub of renewables, and not of gas as the Meloni government wants, but to do so it must find the courage to archive the huge subsidies to sources fossil fuels and must be able to authorize new plants using clean sources in a few months”.

Luciano Di Tizio, President of WWF Italy: “Climatologists are clear: we have very few years to cut climate-changing emissions and prevent global warming from reaching very dangerous and unmanageable levels. The study presented today shows us that decarbonising the economy, starting with the production of electricity, will can. Renewable sources, especially photovoltaic and wind power, guarantee independence, energy security, greater resilience to the impacts now underway of climate change. At the same time, we must accelerate the decommissioning of fossil infrastructures, from coal to gas. The recipe is there , the ingredients too, now political will is needed: this is what is needed in the next PNIEC”.

Matteo Leonardi, ECCO Co-founder and National Policy Director: “The study offers a vision of a decarbonised electricity system by 2035 as per Italy’s commitment to the G7, of which our country will have the Presidency next year. To the numbers on the power of new renewable plants, storage needs, flexible demand and strengthening of the network, which offer a quantitative indication for updating the PNIEC to 2030, the work accompanies a collection of policy recommendations to boost investments and reap the benefits in terms of development, gas exit and employment. only numbers but above all the need to ensure policies consistent with the objectives.The lack of governance on the climate, of mechanisms for monitoring and correcting policies, starting from the authorization process, has led to a ridiculous development of renewables in recent years.The losses of this delay are figures to nine zeros.”