Cop27: the issues at the center of the United Nations conference on climate in Egypt
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The window is closing, at Cop27 the task of keeping it open. Among the many reports released in recent weeks close to the Conference of the parties on climate (from 6 to 18 November in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt), the one released by Unep and called The Closing Window relative to emissions is perhaps the clearest: we are very far from the Paris agreements, it will be almost impossible to keep temperatures within + 1.5 ° C and without a turnaround with current policies at the end of the century there will be an increase in the temperature of 2.8 ° C.
The United Nations Conference
Climate, we start from Sharm el-Sheikh but at COP27 the agreement is uphill
by Luca Fraioli
A catastrophic scenario distorted, in turn, by a geopolitical context that includes the energy, economic, food and biodiversity loss crises. All with two situations that keep future climate decisions in check: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the frictions related to Taiwan, with China less collaborative than before with other countries. Meanwhile the states that emit the least CO2 and they are more vulnerable and affected by the climate crisis, they insist on receiving 100 billion a year funding from more developed countries. These and other issues, which we try to summarize, will be the central ones in the Egyptian UN summit that is about to begin.
LOSSES AND DAMAGES
The question of “loss and damage” is considered central in Cop27 hosted by theAfrica, one of the poorest continents and most affected by the climate emergency. At the end of Cop26, negotiations had begun on whether the richest countries (and often more responsible for climate-altering emissions) should commit to concrete economic aid for reconstruction and support for countries facing climate disasters, from intense weather events to drought. Hundreds of developing countries clearly push on this step, but the question ofidentification and quantification of damages and links related to the climate crisis. It will therefore be interesting to understand if a concrete financial instrument will be agreed as a form of compensation and aid to prepare for future extreme events, or – on the path of the German proposal – a sort of international fund that promotes “insurance” to be activated in the event of a catastrophe.
DECARBONIZATION AND GAS
As he said Alessandro Modianospecial envoy for the climate of Italy and a technician who will play a key role in the negotiations, decisive in this COP will be the reconfirmation of commitments made in Glasgow. What is taking shape, especially in the G20 countries, is that some countries, due to the energy crises and ongoing conflicts, may slow down in the path of decarbonisation and the fight against emissions. Consequently, it will be important to understand whether there will be setbacks or not, also relating to investments (including foreign investments, despite the commitment not to invest in fossils from the end of 2022) in terms of, for example, natural gaswhich the EU taxonomy sees as a “sustainable” transition activity.
Strengthen thegoodbye to coal, as decided in the previous conference, will be another key issue: how will it happen? Will decarbonisation also include the conversion of coal-fired plants to gas-fired ones? Questions that perhaps will find answers on two different lines: one is related to the short term, to tackle the energy crisis at the same time, the other over the long term, the one necessary to focus more and more on renewable sources. Finally, it will also be interesting to understand the efforts of the various states: so far only 25 have presented ambitious national climate plans.
ADAPTATION
In the chapter onadaptation the question of the known is included 100 billion dollars a year funding that will have to be provided by the richest countries to the poorest and most vulnerable ones, a game that from Cop27 requires further confirmation. In the context of funding, the details of the Italian climate fund that it destines 840 million euros per year for the next five years, of which 40 million in grants. In the Italian support commitments to other countries, for example in terms of decarbonisation, there are plans underway with Indonesia And Vietnam.
Furthermore, again on the issue of adaptation, there will also be focus on choices for the future, those capable of facing risks also from the point of view social and of health. The single theme health and food shortages includes for example the effects of heat waves, droughts, extreme weather events and firesall impacts linked to the climate crisis that will be assessed and addressed through resilience planning.
MITIGATION
In general, the nearly 200 countries that will be represented at COP27 and all the parties involved will have to show great collaboration to take “bold and immediate action” in an attempt to continue mitigation and reduce emissions to limit global warming well below the 2 ° C. How do we know the world global temperatures have risen by 1.1 ° C and are heading towards 1.5 ° C, according to scientists from the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
The investigation
In the world, 4 out of 10 people live in conditions of extreme vulnerability to climate change
It is estimated that if temperatures rise 1.7 to 1.8 ° C above 1850 levels, half of the world’s population could be exposed to life-threatening levels of heat and humidity. At risk is also the loss of biodiversity. For this it will be necessary in the Egyptian summit to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase. Within these efforts the issues of just transition will be discussed food safety, innovative finance for climate and developmentthe future of energy and water security. Issues that will have to find confirmation and maybe even “a step more”, Modiano affirms, compared to COP26. Among these certainties there must be, for example, the crucial commitment a reduce global methane emissions by 30% (compared to 2020 emissions) by 2030.
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