Climate, the threat of El Niño looms: all the preventive actions against the greatest risks of drought in Southern Africa, Central America and Far East Asia

ROME – After a long presence of three years, La Niña – which in practice is the cooling of the temperature of the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, capable of influencing the climate on the planet – has left the global atmospheric scene, to give way to a probable imminent transition towards El Niño, another periodic climatic phenomenon which between December and January causes a strong warming, again of the waters of the Central-Southern and Eastern Pacific Ocean, causing floods in the affected areas, but also drought in the more distant areas, with extreme meteorological events in countries low-income or very poor, dependent on agriculture and fishing. Especially those facing the Pacific Ocean. It is also believed that El Niño may also have effects on a global scale, with changes in atmospheric circulation all over the world. This could be a relief for some drought-plagued areas, such as the Horn of Africa, but could spell trouble for other parts of Africa, Central America and Far East Asia.

Acute food insecurity. Given the record number of people facing acute food insecurity, theFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is looking into areas of the world that are particularly vulnerable to El Niño and how preventive actions could be taken to mitigate its risks. Southern Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and some parts of of Asia are particularly worrying. This is because a number of countries in these regions already face high levels of acute food insecurity and key growing seasons fall within the typical El Niño weather patterns of drier conditions. Northern areas of South America are also at risk from potential drought, while Australia normally experiences suppressed rainfall.

El Niño it affected more than 60 million people in 23 countries. “Early warnings mean that we must take early and preventative action, and we will support our members in these efforts, to the maximum extent resources allow,” said Rein Paulsen, bureau chief of the FAO for Emergencies and Resilience. In the wake of the episode of El Niño of 2015 and 2016, which affected more than 60 million people in some 23 countries, FAO worked diligently with its members – including many whose food security could be affected by the next El Niño – and other agencies of the United Nations to establish preventive action plans and protocols. Standard operating procedures have been developed to expedite timely interventions such as establishing community seed stores, assessing strategic food stocks, and strengthening animal health surveillance campaigns.

Preventive actions in Africa, Asia and Central America. For example, FAO has developed preventive action protocols for drought in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, southern Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, the Philippines, Pakistan and Central America, and stands ready to act promptly, in coordination with governments and partners, if the predictions materialize. With the latest forecasts increasing the likelihood of an El Niño event occurring from June onwards, FAO is already making initial preparations to support affected countries. “The forecasts at this point are clear, but inevitably they can only be presented with low confidence due to their low power during the May-June-July period,” explained Oscar Rojas, agrometeorologist at the FAO.

The rhythms of El Niño. Its events typically occur every two to seven years, with episodes of La Nina and neutral conditions that fill in the intervening years. Catalyzed by a warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, El Niño it has a large influence on temperature and precipitation patterns in many parts of the world, leading to extreme weather events including droughts, floods and storms. While the events and impacts of El Niño are never the same, broadly typical patterns increase predictable regional consequences. The approach of FAO was to map changes in vegetation conditions on the world’s croplands and combine this analysis with crop calendars to better understand how rainfall deficits can affect production – the effects of water stress vary throughout the life cycle of a crop. This approach helps identify areas of highest risk – those where drought conditions impact the entire crop cycle – and guide the type of interventions that should be implemented.

Risk mapping. While the rain will be a welcome relief for farmers in Argentina and Near East Asia, El Niño it can also cause severe flooding, which can damage agriculture and increase the risk of disease. This is a particular risk that the FAO he looked at in relation to East Africa, which has faced four years of extreme rainfall deficits and where recovery will still take a long time even if the rains finally return. Australia, Brazil and South Africa, all major grain producers and exporters, are among the countries at risk of drought conditions, as are a host of other countries in Central and West Africa, Southeast Asia and the Caribbean. The inverse risk of excessive rainfall applies to exporters such as Argentina, Turkey and the United States of America, as well as Central Asian countries.